A Year of Chaos
Oh, patron saint of lonely souls.
Tell this boy which way to go.
Guide the car you got the keys
Farewell to mediocrity.
Kicking off the cruise control,
and turnin’ up the radio.
Got just enough religion and half a tank of gas.
Come on, let’s go!
I finally found my way.
Say goodbye to yesterday.
Hit the gas, there ain’t no brakes,
On this lost highway.
I’ve busted loose, I’m lettin’ go.
Out on this open road.
It’s independence day,
On this lost highway.
Lost Highway - Bon Jovi
…..
It was just a year ago that I started this blog. Thanks to all of you loyal readers, year two is beginning. If you read the “about” section of this website, you will find my explanation, written a year ago, of why I was writing this blog and why it carries the name that it does. “I expect we are on the cusp of entering that chaotic period,” I wrote.
We are indeed.
I outlined four different dimensions in which I suspect this chaos will be manifested. Let’s quickly review each of those and what is different now versus one year ago.
International: This is where the most obvious evidence of a more chaotic world appeared. There is a hot war in Ukraine which was not happening 12 months ago. Additionally, the Chinese threaten Taiwan and there is significant tension in the South China sea. Japan is rearming for the first time since 1945 and will outspend most European countries on defense as a percentage of their GDP. North Korea, Iran, Cuba and Venezuela are not passive places. And even amongst our “friends” and allies, there is concern that the U.S. is using the dollar to punish behavior it does not like. This causes those countries to want to turn from the dollar to other currencies or gold. The bottom line here is that the world is a more unstable place than it was a year ago and the direction is for more instability not less.
Political: We just watched a fight to name a new Speaker of the House which only has precedents in the period leading up to the depression and the Civil War. Coincidence? I think not. The political divisions both between the parties and within them have not been greater in my lifetime. Last week, Ron DeSantis was sworn in for his second term as the governor of Florida. As part of his inaugural address, he stated “Florida is where woke goes to die”. The same week, Gavin Newsom was sworn in for his second term as California’s governor. Amongst Newsom’s comments in his inaugural address was an attack on “small men in big offices” and Republicans who “silence speech, fire teachers, kidnap migrants….and even demonize Mickey Mouse.” He added, “The battle lines are drawn. And yes, once again, it is a time for choosing.”
Doesn’t sound like there’s much room for compromise or agreement there does it?
Interestingly, “A Time for Choosing” was the title of Ronald Reagan’s famous 1964 speech supporting Senator Barry Goldwater for president that year. Reagan became a two-term California governor and then, of course, a two- term president. Is Newsom channeling that political success with an agenda that is the anathema of everything Reagan stood for? To paraphrase Senator Lloyd Bentsen’s 1988 retort, “I knew Ronald Reagan and governor, you are no Ronald Reagan.” But I digress.
It is hard to argue that the chaos in politics is less today than a year ago.
Economic: Inflation is setting records for the last 40 years as interest rates rise precipitously. Asset prices of virtually all kinds are falling. Crypto and “meme stocks” are collapsing. China, Europe and Japan all have worse economic problems than we do. Deficits and debt of all kinds are at record levels in nations, corporations and with individuals as well. All of this came at us in the last 12 months. And the changes are far from over. Economies around the world are changing and changing fast. But predictions of where it is all going are all over the map. Why? Because these are not normal times, and the normal metrics of the last few decades don’t apply.
Societal: A large part of America embraces “woke ideology.” The other part vehemently rejects it. In some places there are only two genders. In others, there are over 100. Atheists in America are becoming increasingly hostile to Judeo-Christian beliefs and culture and want to replace it with their own. Families during the Civil War were divided by north and south. Today, they are divided by left and right. The “culture war” is becoming hotter.
Now, before you go seek an open window on the 10th floor of some building, understand that fissures like this are not new in societies or even in America. They are just new in our lifetimes. I am a devotee of the book The Fourth Turning written by Neil Howe and William Strauss in 1997. All living things have cycles, including countries and societies. These cycles run over a period of about 80-100 years. We have not had a cycle of upheaval in about that many years. William Strauss has passed on, but Neil Howe is still with us and thinks we are in one of those periods now.
Such periods are tumultuous for sure. But the country survived them, and many families made it through just fine.
We will too, if we manage ourselves to do so. Although much of this blog is about politics, I will touch on the other three dimensions of the current chaos as the weeks and months progress.
We will continue to look through and beyond the chaos together.
I remain respectfully,
Congressman John Campbell
Drive Fast and Live Free