Debt Limit Deal
You know you got a job and a little bitty check.
A six pack of beer and a television set.
Little bitty world goes around and around,
A little bit of silence and a little bit of sound.
A good ole’ boy and a pretty little girl,
Start all over in a little bitty world.
Little bitty plan and a little bitty dream.
It’s all part of a little bitty scheme.
It’s alright to be a little bitty,
A little hometown or a big ole’ city.
Might as well share, might as well smile.
Life goes on for a little bitty while.
Little Bitty - Alan Jackson (1996)
…..
There has been plenty of spin about the debt limit non-negotiations, then negotiations and finally deal and passage into law. According to the leftist media, Speaker McCarthy endangered the country with unreasonable far-right demands and Biden appropriately refused to negotiate. Then the Speaker passed a bill, which the Senate could not do, and the president began negotiations. Miraculously, the president who would not negotiate suddenly took credit for a great bipartisan achievement that saved the nation. My view is, unsurprisingly, different.
I think that what Speaker McCarthy accomplished is masterful. Here are my thoughts in no particular order:
Speaker McCarthy was able to pass a bill with only a tiny and fractious majority and with no help from the opposition party. This, and the fact that Majority Leader Schumer was unable to respond in kind, is what gave the Speaker the “currency” to force the president to negotiate and cut a deal.
If I were still in Congress, I would have voted for the bill. Of course, it is not everything that any Republican wanted. That is what “deals” and “compromise” entail. The spending reductions (really just reduced increases) over the next 2 years are minor in the grand scheme of things. But, there was something much more significant. The last time there was any slowdown in the growth of federal spending was the passage of the “sequester” in 2011, which I voted for. After Obama was reelected in 2012, the sequester was routinely “suspended” to allow more spending. President Trump, always a lover of spending and debt in public and private life, continued the upward trend in deficits. The lockdowns and the gigantic policy response were a big part of that. Biden of course, took over where Trump left off and has spent still more, albeit less than he wanted. So, to me, the major accomplishment of this legislation is to begin what is hopefully a new era of fiscal restraint with the understanding that there is a limit to just how much debt we as a country can stand.
The Democrats are much better at incrementalism than Republicans ever have been. To use a football metaphor, Republicans stand on their own 5-yard line, see the end zone ahead, and throw “the bomb”. Those almost always either fall incomplete or are intercepted. Democrats stand on their own 5-yard line, see the end zone ahead, and run off tackle plays, short passes and end runs. It takes a while, but they often score and achieve their ultimate goal. Look at how Dems have done this with the culture of late going first for gay acceptance, then marriage, now transgenders and next pedophiles and prostitution until they have completely altered society away from Judeo/Christian underpinnings (which is their goal line). This bill is hopefully the beginning of Republican incrementalism in getting some control over our deficits.
The Republicans who voted against this did so for one of two reasons. The first is that it did not reduce spending enough. They are right. But holding out for more would have resulted in nothing at all – the dropped long pass. I have seen it too many times
Other Republican no votes, particularly in the Senate, were from the national security Republicans. Defense spending was increased by 3% which is less than inflation. Again, they are right. But there was a major accomplishment. Since 2011, there has been agreement between Rs and Ds that any defense spending increase would be matched by a non-defense spending increase. This deal broke that pattern. Non-defense spending will only increase by 1%. That is another big deal. Incremental for sure. But a start.
Biden’s biggest victory here, and the thing I like least about the bill, is that the new debt limit is not a number, but it will be whatever debt has been issued by January 1, 2025. For Biden, that means no more debt limit fight until after the next election. It also means a blank check to borrow whatever amount is necessary to support spending. But, Republicans will control the House all of that time and should be the control to keep spending in check, absent another crisis like the pandemic.
For the 300+ House members and 60+ Senators who voted for this, they think it was a good political vote. So, do I. The public yearns for government to work again and for bipartisan solutions to be reached. This bill was the first one of those (excepting the massive lockdown money printing) in at least 8 years. Those who voted for it will tout their bipartisan bona fides.
Biden will take that same credit too. Hence his prime-time address about it. He was elected in 2020 because many people thought that “lunch bucket Joe” would be moderate and bring the country back together. He has done the opposite. He will try and use this, along with a few energy permits and some troops at the border, to convince people that he is now going to be what they voted for. Don’t believe it. He was dragged into this kicking and screaming, until he noticed that the public liked it, so then he decided to say it was his idea all along.
So, what now? McCarthy has said the House plans to pass all 12 appropriations bills on time. He thinks he can do this because the top-line spending amounts in those bills have already been agreed upon in the debt deal. If he does that, it will be another rare accomplishment that has not been achieved in decades.
McCarthy is showing that he can make Congress work again. Americans desperately want that. If a small faction of Republicans try to upset his speakership because the bill wasn’t enough, again using a football metaphor, they will have thrown a “pick-six” to lose the game after leading at the half.
The Speaker is playing the long game. He knows he can only make real progress if he holds the House after 2024 and gets a Republican president who is committed to reducing deficits. As the song at the top of this missive says, sometimes, it’s alright to have a “little bitty scheme.” It can be the path to something bigger.
I remain respectfully,
Congressman John Campbell
Drive Fast & Live Free