Donkeys and Elephants
So, you’re looking for a hero
That you can see with your own eyes.
When they don’t wear a mask and cape,
They’re hard to recognize.
Even though these are cynical times,
Bear it in mind…
Good guys win, every once in a while.
Full grown men get to learn from a child.
Now and then,
Just when you think it won’t happen again.
The good guys win.”
Good Guys Win - Jimmy Buffett (2006)
…..
I said earlier this year that it was hard for me to imagine that both major parties would each nominate presidential candidates that fully 60% of the public does not like. I also said that I thought the government funding process this year would go smoothly because of the “debt-limit deal” made in May. So, how are my predictions going?
Donkeys: An increasing chorus of Democratic leaders, albeit largely outside of elected office, are calling for their party to nominate someone other than Biden in 2024. Regardless of your view of his “accomplishments” as president, his age-related deterioration is becoming obvious to everyone, even if the press ignores it. And his approval ratings languish. The challenge for Democrats is to make this happen without elevating the even more inept Kamala Harris to a position they privately admit she should not hold. More importantly, how do they do this without violating their own misguided rules on what constitutes racism.
So, how do they make this move? If they pull the trigger and run away from Biden in the next couple of months, Gavin Newsom or other candidates for president would still have time to get on the primary ballot in most states and run a campaign with the help of all the media outlets who will heap praise on whatever Democrat is chosen. But, if they wait until after the early primaries, they might have to make that change at the convention in August.
If they make the change at the convention, they would have to go with Kamala (or another black woman) or they would be racist. Her public approval rating is abysmal and her well-funded campaign for president in 2016 was universally regarded as inept. That said, the Democrats commitment to identity politics and the support they have from media, entertainment and Big Tech could make Kamala into a “superstar,” or at least they might think they could do that. She could be assigned a competent male VP to give some cover to her lack of any substance.
So, I think there are increasing signs that Biden will be replaced at the top of the ticket, which would be a smart move on the part of Democrats. Choosing Kamala as his replacement would not be the best choice, but they may still do it. After all, mentally incompetent John Fetterman won a Senate seat running against a Trump clone candidate. If the Democrats can elect someone like him in a big purple state like Pennsylvania, they can certainly get Kamala across the line as well. Controlling all major media and communications outlets gives the Dems a huge advantage in promoting weak candidates. Furthermore, Democratic voters see elected officials as voting machines that just vote the party line and their cognitive abilities are unimportant. Republicans vote completely differently, which is why poor R candidates lose and poor D candidates often win.
Elephants: I am less confident about where the Republicans are going. Nobody reads Trump’s social media platform, Truth Social. But if you did, you would see that he recently called for the execution (that would mean death) of General Mark Milley, for raiding the homes of Senate Democrats and for the investigation of NBC for treason. You can be sure that if Trump were the nominee, these and other statements he has made on social media will be everywhere. The Biden administration is running roughshod over the constitution as we all know. The way to deal with that is NOT to have the next administration ride over it even harder to get even.
So, the GOP needs a nominee other than Donald Trump not just to win, but to protect the constitution, which is more important than any one set of policies. Tonight’s second GOP debate, however, was a hot mess. No one from CNN could have asked as many leftist questions as the Univision moderator. So, one third of the debate questions were really of no interest to Republican primary voters but were intended to show how bad all the Republicans are to Hispanics. The candidates kept talking over each other so you couldn’t understand anyone. They took some cheap shots at each other and the moderators had trouble keeping control. At the Reagan library, Reagan’s 11th commandment (thou shalt not speak ill of another Republican) was no where to be found. It was frankly hard to watch.
Thus, there were no breakout moments. None of the lower polling candidates connected. Mike Pence is a good man and a good friend, but this is not his time or place. Doug Burgum was a longshot that is missing the target. Ramaswamy continues to show moments of brilliance coupled with very poor moments, a function of his inexperience, I believe. Tim Scott’s upbeat message seems to be falling flat in a time where people see decline and are worried.
That leaves DeSantis, Haley and Christie. These three were the most substantive and most likely to actually answer the question asked. I never thought Christie would last this long, and I still don’t think he’s in for the long haul, but he is good in a debate setting and landed most of his punches on Donald Trump. The guy from New Jersey was actually the one who interrupted the least as was the most polite. Go figure.
Likeability is important in politics. People rarely vote for someone they don’t like, even if that person agrees with them on issues. DeSantis has had a likeability issue, but he was better tonight. Haley looked strong in the last debate but came off more harsh tonight. Scott and Christie both have an appeal, but no one stands out.
That’s the bottom line. This campaign should be winnowing down to maybe four candidates in the next month. But if we don’t get to only one pretty soon, we will be stuck with Donald Trump which means the country will lose no matter what.
Government Shutdown: I lived through several of these while in Congress. Republicans never win with the public when the government shuts down. Comparing closure of parks and withholding social security checks to “reducing the debt” just is not a favorable comparison to most people. The handful of Republicans holding this up by “standing on principle” are unfortunately hurting rather than helping their own cause. The U.S. debt situation will soon reach crisis level. Small spending cuts are better than none, but they won’t make any meaningful dent in a $2T deficit and $33T in debt. That will take an election in 2024 with a House, Senate and President committed to deficit reduction. Grandstanding with a government shutdown will only make that 2024 victory less likely.
Throughout my time in Congress, a “clean CR,” which neither increases nor decreases spending was the path when the parties could not agree on anything else. Five members, or one house for that matter, cannot and should not impose their will on the entire governmental elected body.
So, as I write this, it looks like Republicans will hand the Democrats another political win and will, in the end, make very few if any policy gains. I don’t blame McCarthy for this. I still think he has done a masterful job with what he has. He will eventually have to pass something with Democratic votes and then presumably there will be a “motion to vacate the chair” and replace him. If that succeeds, prepare for Speaker Jeffries in 2024.
I will have a lot more to say about this, but the trajectory of the national debt in interest payments thereon is so bad now, that the government will almost certainly have only a few very unappealing choices on how to deal with it in the next few years.
But we can continue with Jimmy Buffett’s words that sometimes the good guys actually do win.
I remain respectfully,
Congressman John Campbell
Drive Fast & Live Free