Forecast – 2025, After the Election
’Round here, fast is how the grass grows.
Lost is what you find on a back road.
Proof’s in the whiskey, red’s in the dirt.
And hard work stops at the fence row.
We stand for the flag and if you don’t like it, we don’t care.
‘Cause we do things a little different ‘round here.
Brave is 18 wearing army green.
Truth is in the words in red, we read.
Proud is what you say about where you’re from.
Heroes are Daddys and Mommas are love.
The right is right, and wrong is wrong.
Yeah we’re, doin’ things a little different ‘round here.
Different ‘Round Here - Riley Green/Luke Combs (2023)
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Last week, I gave you my best predictions (guesses) as to the election outcome in November. I’m very sure about the Senate going R, moderately confident about the House going D, and not at all sure about who the next president will be. But, there are certain conditions in 2025 that I believe I can predict regardless of the election results. Here follows the political landscape I see in 2025.
The next Presidency will fail: Historians will tell you that amongst the worst presidents in history were James Buchanan (1857-1861), Herbert Hoover (1929-1933) and Jimmy Carter (1977-1981). All were one term presidents. Hoover and Carter both ran for reelection and lost. In my view, none of these were bad men. They became president at a bad time and events overcame them.
The divisions in the country that led to the Civil War had been brewing for a number of years before Buchanan became president. He tried to steer a middle path to calm the flames. But the Dred Scott decision and John Brown’s raid happened. Buchanan had no control over these events and the divisions in the country became greater. Herbert Hoover won the biggest electoral college win in history to that point in 1928. A few months after he was sworn in came Black Friday and a depression that continued eight more years after he left office. Reagan attacked Carter for the “misery index” which combined inflation and unemployment. Both were on the rise before he became president and continued until Paul Volcker (appointed by Carter) raised interest rates.
America today is in a similar place to when those three presidents were elected. The divisions in the country are massive, maybe second only to the divisions of the 1850s, and are likely to widen after the election of any of the leading candidates this year. Although we have avoided recession last year and probably this year as well, it is very unlikely that we will not experience a major economic downturn or new highs in inflation or both in the next 4 years. The debt will become unsustainable and require significant action that will have negative consequences no matter what option is chosen. The millions of new unauthorized immigrants will cause many problems internally in the United States from crime and terrorism to social costs. Finally, one must presume that one of the world’s many powder kegs of conflict erupts during the next four years and the U.S. either enters the fray or decides to relinquish its role as the world’s hegemony. Not unlike the three presidents from history, there is little the next president can do to stop at least some of this from occurring. History is likely to look on the next president as causing these issues (whether they did or not) and failing to fix them.
“Soft Secessions” will occur: The American Civil War did not start with people just deciding to shoot across state lines. The issues festered for a decade and then the election of Abraham Lincoln with less than 40% of the popular vote caused the losing side in that election to secede from the union, starting of course, with South Carolina.
Someone will win the presidency in 2024 likely with around 40% or so of the popular vote. The side that loses, after claiming that the election was rigged, will not accept the results and will be very unhappy. I do not expect an 1861 like chain of successions. But what I do think will happen is what I call “soft secession” wherein the losing states do not formally succeed but that stop recognizing the laws, mandates and decisions of the federal government. You are already seeing some of this now as Texas is enforcing federal border laws against the policies of the administration and California passes laws with complete disregard for recent Supreme Court rulings that declare those laws unconstitutional.
I expect these sorts of “soft secession” activities to increase in number and severity after the 2024 election. Will the new president send out the military to quash these revolts in Texas or California (depending on who wins) as Lincoln did? Or we will effectively have a greatly expanded 10th amendment (powers reserved for the states) and a weakened federal system?
This week’s song lyrics are about the differences between a red state and a blue one. This is a new song. There are a lot like it. Art (music, movies, etc.) often tells you things about the mood of the times. This song certainly does since “it is different ‘round here.”
More institutions will be delegitimized with at least some of the population: If you are a Democrat, you probably think that the Supreme Court is now illegitimate, being that it is packed with treasonous Trump appointees with no regard for democracy. If you are Republican, you likely think that the FBI is now a political enforcement arm of the Biden administration that uses overwhelming force to arrest, abuse and jail, without charge, its political opponents, not unlike the Soviet KGB. These are two institutions that not long ago were revered by virtually the entire population. Even the military is under pressure from the left to be more involved in DEI and climate change and from the right to have nothing to do with anything unrelated to winning wars.
I expect these trends will continue as one side or other of the political debate loses faith in more and more public and private institutions (like universities) that formerly were bedrocks of society.
The 2016 Trump Tax Cuts will expire: The 2016 “Trump” tax cuts will expire December 31, 2025 absent legislative action to extend them. For an extension to happen, Republicans will need to control both Houses and the White House, and even then, they will have to jump through hoops to pass the extension with 51 votes in the Senate. I think Democrats will likely win the House or the White House or both. With deficits exceeding $2 Trillion, even some Republicans may have issues with some of the extensions. Interestingly, since the $10,000 limitation on state and local tax deductions would go away, many higher income taxpayers in blue states (CA, NY, IL, CT) may actually see their taxes go down as they can now deduct those high state taxes.
2028 will elect a redemption president: Following the presidencies of Buchanan, Hoover and Carter, came the redeeming presidencies of Lincoln, FDR and Reagan. At least, that is how history records them. In 2028, Americans will be ready for a fresh approach from new leaders to fix the many wrongs that will exist. I think that whoever becomes president in 2028 may be a very important person who shapes America’s path for the next generation.
Next week, we will turn and take a look at the economy in 2024…and beyond.
Until then, I remain respectfully,
Congressman John Campbell
Drive Fast & Live Free