I’m Baaaack
“Eat meat on Friday, that’s allright.
I even like a steak on a Saturday night.
I can bitch at the best of your social do’s.
I get high in the evening sniffing pots of glue, oh oh oh.
I’m a bitch, I’m a bitch, oh the bitch is back.
Stone cold sober as a matter of fact.
I can bitch, I can bitch ‘cause I’m better than you.
It’s the way that I move, the things that I do, oh oh oh.”
Yes, I am back with the blog after a brief respite. No more podcasts for reasons I articulated previously. But there is still a lot to do and a lot to analyze and a lot to say as the chaos around us ramps up. This week and next, I think it is time to take a look again at our five dimensions of chaos (political, international, economic, societal and cultural) and assess where we stand currently.
First, because it affects many of the others, let’s take a look at the political landscape in the United States.
In the presidential race, things are looking favorable for Donald J. Trump to become only the second person to serve 2 non-consecutive terms as president, the only other one being Democrat Grover Cleveland in the 19th century. Interestingly, President Cleveland was defeated for his first reelection by the same man he beat 4 years later, which would be exactly what would occur if Trump wins in 2024. History does some times repeat.
The election is just under 5 months away so there is time for things to change. But right now, it looks like Trump will win. Polling was pretty inaccurate in 2016 and 2018. But the polls in 2020 and 2022 were much closer to being right. So, I think we should assume that the polling is better than it has been and probably not that far off. There were seven “toss up” states a few months ago. Most observers have now put North Carolina in the Trump column. He won it in 2016 and 2022. Of the remaining 6, he leads in all but Wisconsin in most polls. Furthermore, polls now have Virginia, New Hampshire and even Minnesota as toss ups. These are states that had been considered safe for Biden and that he (or Hillary) won in 2020 and 2016. The goal of any presidential campaign is to expand the competitive map to include states your opponent had taken for granted. That spreads the opponent’s resources out. For example, if Virginia is genuinely competitive, Biden cannot lose it or the election is likely over. So, he will have to divert time and money away from Michigan and Pennsylvania to save it.
The sham conviction was something that the Biden camp was counting on hurting Trump. Polling thus far shows that it has not. Most polling did not move at all or if anything, moved slightly in Trump’s favor. And, of course, Trump has raised hundreds of millions of dollars off of the political prosecution. The judge set a sentencing in the trial for a few days before the Republican convention, a date I’m sure was not picked at random. With 34 felony convictions, you have to assume the judge will order significant jail time. But if the Biden administration thinks that might help Trump more than hurt him, I’m sure they will send a message telling the judge not to do this. This trial had nothing to do with justice but is all a ruse to try and change the outcome of an election. The judge will do what the Biden camp tells him to.
Will the Democrats pull Biden from the ticket? I still think it is a possibility if the debate later this month goes poorly and the polling for Biden does not improve. Biden’s main appeal within his party is that he “slayed the Trump dragon.” If they think he won’t do that again, there is no reason to keep him. But, you say, primaries were held, and Biden is the nominee. Yes. But look at what the Dems did in 2016 and 2020 to keep Bernie Sanders from the nomination. The Democratic party is a union shop. If the union leaders want someone different at the top of the ticket, they will get it and most Dem voters will fall in line.
I live in one of the 6 swing states (Arizona), which affords me the opportunity to see what each campaign is doing in advertising to try and win. The Biden campaign has a lot more money than the Trump campaign, even after the conviction money flood. So, they have ads running here in Arizona and Trump does not. Interestingly, the Biden ads are all negative ads on Trump. Campaigns usually only go negative when (a) they are behind and need to bring the leading opponent down or (b) they don’t think positive ads on their candidate will resonate and bring more votes. Neither is a good sign for team Biden, at least here in the Copper State.
Let’s move to the U.S. Senate races. The Senate is currently split 51-49 in favor of the Democrats. There were not and still aren’t any reasonable chances for the Democrats to pick up any seats. Conversely, they are playing defense on 8 seats in Arizona, Nevada, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Maryland, West Virginia and Wisconsin. West Virginia is a slam-dunk for the Republicans to win in a state Trump won in 2020 by nearly 40 points.
So, that makes a 50-50 Senate. But in spite of seven more potential GOP pick-ups, the Republican candidates are behind in all 7 of those races. You cannot say the polls showing Trump ahead are right and see the same pollster show the Republican Senate candidate behind and somehow say that those polls are wrong. In almost all of those races, the Democrat is an incumbent and incumbency is hard to beat. The defense I hear from GOP analysts is that their candidates are not well known yet and once they are the polling will change. I’m not so sure. An unknown or little known candidate gives an opponent with more money a chance to define that newcomer negatively. The newcomer may then find themselves on the defensive when they are trying to mount an offensive campaign against an entrenched incumbent.
And the Democrats have more money. They have more money for the Senate, the House and the White House. Their small donor fundraising network is better. But they also have all of the union, Hollywood, and Tech money. Most wealthy people in America today are Democrats and most corporations give to Democrats. Much of this money comes from things government does for these individuals and corporations. It’s just a fact that in most races and most cycles now, Republicans have to operate with less money.
If a 50-50 Senate looks like a strong possibility, that may influence Trump’s VP pick since that person would basically be living in the Senate if it was split equally.
House races are much harder to assess this far out. There are still a number of states that have not held primaries. That said, the number of truly competitive seats is shrinking. Conservatives are moving out of blue states to red ones making both the blue states bluer and the red states redder. The Cook Report only lists 22 of the 435 seats as “toss-up” at this point. Another 22 lean one way or the other but are still “competitive.”
Again, Republicans have an advantage in pure electoral math because they only need to win 16 of these 44 seats to get the majority. On the other side, however, all but five of those 44 seats are in blue or purple states. So, most of the Republican challengers and incumbents have to swim against the tide in states like California, New York, New Jersey and Colorado.
No matter who wins the House, it looks like their majority will be small, because there just aren’t enough swing districts, and the “safe” districts are so evenly split. I still think the Dems have the advantage due to their money and the fact that the Republican majority has been so chaotic in this Congress.
I hear some people talk about “coattails,” which is when a presidential candidate brings a Congress along with them. I don’t see either Trump or Biden as having coattails. Many people are voting for Biden because they hate Trump, and Trump because they hate Biden. That sort of support does not bring others along for the ride. So, I think the Senate and House candidates will largely be standing on their own in both parties.
There is the political landscape as I see it on June 11, 2024.
Next week, we will look at the economy and international scene. They are both just as interesting and confusing as the political one.
Until next week, I remain respectfully,
Congressman John Campbell
Drive Fast & Live Free