Statistics You May Not Know
“Looking out at the road rushin’ under my wheels.
I don’t know how to tell you all just how crazy this life feels.
Looking out for the friends that I used to turn to to pull me through.
Looking into their eyes, I see them running too.
Running on, running on empty.
Running on, running blind.
Running on, running into the sun,
But I’m running behind. ”
You might expect me to talk about Iran’s attack on Israel this past weekend, which is obviously the big news. I have little to add to that until we see how it plays out from here. In other areas of interest, there are lots of facts and figures of which you might not be aware. So, this missive will concentrate on that. Hopefully, you will find this informative.
Nuclear: There are approximately 12,500 nuclear warheads in the world. In spite of “détente” between the U.S. and Russia, that number has been rising as China adds nukes. Meanwhile, there are only 436 nuclear reactors generating power around the world. In 1996, 15.5% of the world’s electricity was generated by nuclear power. In 2022, that was down to 8.6%. No, the difference is not wind and solar which are a tiny fraction of power generation. The difference is being produced by coal, natural gas, and oil. Nuclear power and warheads are trending in the opposite direction of what they should be doing.
Debt: We all know about government debt and credit card debt and that sort of thing. The world is swimming in debt. There is about $350 trillion of it worldwide by some measures. About $60 trillion or so matures each year. Most of this debt (like US Treasury debt) is too big to ever be paid off. It must be refinanced. So, stop thinking in terms of how this or that government or company or individual pays off their debt. Instead, think about how it will be refinanced and who will lend it. Or what happens if they can’t refinance?
Unsustainable: Bloomberg (not a conservative publication) recently ran 1 million simulations of the future path of U.S. debt and deficits. They determined that 88% of those simulations resulted in a situation that was in their words, “unsustainable”. What does “unsustainable” mean? Presumably, it means that the solutions at that point will be draconian. This is not good. But you probably knew that. We have to change this trajectory.
Foreign-born: The percentage of Americans that are foreign-born has reached a new all-time high of 15.1%, eclipsing the previous high of 14.7% during the ‘bring us your people yearning to be free” era around 1910. Looking more recently, the percentage was only 4.7% in 1970 and 7.9% in 1990. I believe that a controlled amount of immigration refreshes the country. But too much, particularly if it is uncontrolled, risks altering the nation’s culture and a blowback from the native population. People who follow this stuff think that level is about 15%. But that cultural change is what the Biden Neo-Marxists want.
Biden EPA: The administration’s recent ruling on carbon emissions (which are not smog and are only about climate worship) has some EV mandates out in the 2030s. Largely unnoticed is the fact that it calls for an 18% reduction in carbon dioxide for the 2027 model year. Those 2027 vehicles will be on sale in a little over 2 years. To achieve this, car manufacturers must either sell a bunch more EVs which the public seems not to want, or sell smaller cars and trucks with smaller engines.
Religion: According to Gallup, only 30% of Americans regularly attended religious services in 2021-2023. That is down from 42% 20 years earlier, which was down from earlier decades. The most religious states are Utah and the Southern States. The least religious are New England, Washington, Oregon, and Hawaii. To me, this is as great a threat to future American prosperity as the debt or anything else. If we abandon God, we abandon the fundamental beliefs that created and have sustained American exceptionalism for 250 years. As T.S. Eliot said, the West “could not survive the complete disappearance of the Christian faith…If Christianity goes, the whole culture goes…it is against the background of Christianity that all our thought has significance.”
Inflation: In June of last year, the cost of a postage stamp was 63 cents. On July 14, it will go up to 73 cents. That is an increase of 15.8% in just over a year when we are told inflation is getting under control. Right.
Happiness: I am not a big believer in happiness surveys. The definition of happiness can vary significantly from person to person. That said, the most recent Gallup survey on this subject shows that American happiness has dropped from 19th in the world to 23rd during the Biden administration. We are now less happy than every European country except the Germans and significantly below the happiness of Israelis.
Credit Card Debt: 3.5% of all credit card debtors were at least 30 days past due in December which is the highest figure since 2012. 10% of borrowers have an account balance that exceeds $5200. The economy continues to grow, and people continue to be employed but there are pockets of increasing stress out there.
Inverted Yield Curve: You probably have heard a lot about this. You have heard how an inverted yield curve (longer-dated bonds pay less interest than short-term ones) portends a coming recession. Yet, no recession has occurred this year after nearly 2 years of the “inverted curve” in Treasury debt. My view is that this indicator is no longer valid because the Federal Reserve and the Treasury are manipulating these rates in an attempt to slow inflation while still funding massive deficit spending. Interestingly, if you look at the curve for government agency debt (Home Loan, Farm Credit, etc.) the curve is completely “normal” as interest rates rise from 30 days (about 4.6%) all the way to 20 years (about 6.5%). These are less manipulated because the issuance is driven by demand factors. No inversion or recession flag there.
Energy Consumption: The G7 nations have not increased total energy consumption in about 25 years. Meanwhile, energy consumption in the rest of the world has more than doubled so that now more than 2/3rds of the world’s energy consumption is outside of the G7 countries. People in India would like to have a 2000-square-foot house that they can heat and cool to their liking with an F150 pickup in the driveway. Al Gore, John Kerry, and Greta Thunberg, who have all the luxuries of the top 1% of incomes, (Greta once sailed in a high-tech $10M sailboat to show how you can travel without carbon fuels) keep telling those people they can’t have that stuff. The people of India don’t care what Kerry thinks. If the rest of the world increased per capita energy consumption to the same as the G7, energy consumption in the world would nearly triple. Where are you going to get that? Here’s a hint: not windmills.
Conclusion: In most of the stats shown above, the trends are not good. I wish that weren’t the case. But, I’m not here either to depress you or to be your Pollyanna “everything’s going to be great” guy. As the cops on the TV show Dragnet used to say, “Just the facts, mam”. If we are going to survive and even prosper through the coming chaos while living meaningful lives, it is important to deal with conditions are they are rather than how we would like them to be.
Until next time, I remain respectfully,
Congressman John Campbell
Drive Fast & Live Free