Still Only Two

What now my love,
Now that you left me.
How can I live, through another day.
Watching my dreams, turn in to ashes.
And all my hopes, into bits of clay.
Once I could see.
Once I could feel.
Now I’m numb.
I’ve become unreal.

What Now My Love  -  Elvis Presley, Aloha from Hawaii 1973 ( Song written in 1961 and sung by almost everyone of any note but only Elvis sang it to 1 billion people on his live telecast from Hawaii)

…..

There are many things going on out there in our broken world upon which I would like to opine. But for at least one more week, I feel compelled to revisit the status of the chaos in the House and the chaos in the middle east. Not that either of these issues will be resolved by next week, next month, or next year as I will explain below.

The House: Welcome new Speaker Mike Johnson, Republican from Louisiana! Never heard of him? Neither had I. The Republican Conference went with the second of the three options I have outlined to you over the last several weeks to choose a speaker. That being the option of picking someone “deep” within the conference who had not sought the job. Being deep in the conference and never having been a committee chair, said person hasn’t been in a position to antagonize anyone yet. And hence, he avoided having a group of four or more determined to prevent his elevation to the job. He is only in his 4th term in Congress and as such, is the least experienced Speaker in recent memory.

There is good news. He received zero Republican “no” votes and therefore has unified the fractious caucus for now. I don’t personally know him since he came to Congress several years after I left. But he seems affable. You can read what others say about him just as I can. In business or the military or other fields of endeavor where leadership is important, we have all seen instances where someone who does not seem to be equipped for a job shows up and stuns everyone with great skill and competence that was not readily apparent before. Hopefully that is the case here.

But the Democrats will not make it easy for him. The minority party, whichever party that is, aspires to be in the majority at the next election. The Democrats smell blood in the water and know that this chaos has hurt Republicans in many dimensions. As much as they say they want a Speaker, Democrats want the internal sniping amongst Republicans to continue because it will help them achieve that majority in 2024.

Add to that the legislative lifts that are looming in the next two months. There is the government funding which runs out again in November. McCarthy’s deal to fund the government for 45 days was the catalyst to kick him out of the Speakership. Will Speaker Johnson make a similar deal, or preside over a government shutdown in a time of war? If he makes such a deal, one member can again “vacate the chair” because they haven’t changed that rule. In that case, we would be back at square one.

Then there is Biden’s request for $100 Billion in war funding. Most of that goes to Ukraine, which many Republicans don’t like. Some goes to Israel, but a nearly equal amount goes to “humanitarian aid” for Palestine, which means it likely goes to Hamas. I wouldn’t vote for that. Does Johnson let that bill pass if a bunch of Republicans are no?

And then there’s the Farm Bill which is done every five years and should have been finished in the Spring. This is always a difficult bill because most of the money is for Food Stamps which the Democrats love. But this is where all the subsidies and insurance programs and so forth for farmers are housed. As far as I can tell, every single majority Agricultural Congressional District in the country is now held by a Republican. Their constituents want and arguably need this to stay in business. But many of the Gaetz group are against any subsidies of any kind to anybody.

And then there’s the question of whether Speaker Johnson can raise money, recruit candidates and lead Republicans to retaining the majority in 2024. He has no track record upon which to rely here.

I very much want Speaker Johnson to succeed. I also want the Arizona Diamondbacks to win the World Series.

Neither is certain. The Diamondbacks job may be easier.

War: The big question it seems on everyone’s mind lately is whether the war can be “contained” or whether there will be expansion. I would argue that the expansion is already occurring. We just found out today that a couple of dozen US military personnel were injured in the Iran proxy rocket attacks on US bases. We know that at least 30 Americans were killed in the Hamas attacks, and more are prisoners. There was a day when this kind of carnage against Americans would have unleashed a massive response from the US. But not anymore. There was a time when a US Passport was a shield against danger. Today, it is a target. Kidnap Americans and you may get money. At worst nothing bad will happen to you.

We also just found out that Iran trained the Hamas attackers. More attacks are coming from Lebanon. Antisemitic rallies are occurring in most western countries and particularly on university campuses. Of the millions of illegal aliens coming across the Mexican border, we know that many are from Iran and other countries full of Islamist Nazis. Some Islamic Nazi attacks, albeit on a very small scale so far, are already occurring outside of the middle east. The Russians are aiding Iran with weapons and technology. The Chinese Communists are helping the Russians by buying their oil an supporting their economy. The Russians are rebuilding their military and the Chinese are making more and more provocative moves in the South China Sea.

The war will expand as the forces of evil sense weakness and opportunity. It will expand on battlefields, but it will also be coming to a school or an airport or shopping mall near you as the Islamist Nazis again bring their hatred across the globe with the aid and encouragement of communists and totalitarians.

I have made and will continue to make World War II analogies here. This is increasingly feeling like 1940 to me, when Britain stood alone. The German Nazis had conquered most of continental Europe and were determined to cross the English Channel to take Britain next. The US had not entered the war yet and the Soviets were still allies of Germany. The Brits received some supplies and weaponry and a few volunteers from America, but otherwise they were alone standing against the most formidable war machine the world had seen to date.

And the British won. They won because they faced occupation and extinction. They fought knowing that to lose was to lose everything. One of the signs placed around the British Isles at the time said, “let every one kill a Hun.” It was a message that when the expected invasion came, every man, woman and child was needed to fight.

Today, Israel stands alone. They are getting verbal support from many places. But when they move against the Islamic Nazis, it will be them and them alone in the fight. And like the British, the consequences of losing are occupation and extinction. I believe the Israelis will prevail as they have in every war since 1948. The question is, what will they have to do and what does victory look like?

One other thing that no one is talking about. Israel has nuclear weapons. I am not suggesting that they will use them. But the US did in 1945 rather than see millions killed in an invasion of Japan. You can’t rule it out, depending on what Iran does.

These are very dangerous times. May the God of Abraham again be with the Jewish people.

I remain respectfully,
Congressman John Campbell
Drive Fast & Live Free