The Presidential Election
Dr. Mr. President, I’m just a young kid.
I’m in the fourth grade at Riley Elementary.
My mom and dad’s been actin’ funny.
I’m not sure if it’s got something to do with me.
My daddy’s always drunk.
My mom’s a babysitter.
I don’t like the Russians ‘cause I hear they hate me.
Dear Mr. President, can I ask you one question.
When the bombs come down, will they hurt everyone in my family?
Down and Out in Paradise – John Cougar Mellencamp
…..
It is more than 19 months before the next presidential election. That sounds like a long time. It is. But not for the players. They are already working hard to plan and set up a strategy to accomplish their goals. And those goals are not always to be president. Here’s the first of what I’m sure will be many blogs about this race over the next 19 months.
First, there are four reasons that a person runs for president. The first is, of course, to become president. These people believe they have a realistic chance to win this time. The second reason is to become Vice President or a Cabinet Member. Does anyone think Pete Buttigieg would be Transportation Secretary had he not been on a national stage running for president? Mayor of South Bend, Indiana is not normally a launching pad to anything. The third reason is to leverage the national exposure to get a talk show or TV “contributor” gig. And the fourth reason is to set yourself up to run again in four years because you don’t think you can make it this time, but you really want the job.
There can be a fifth reason if someone wants to be on the debate stage to torpedo the candidacy of someone else or to push a particular agenda within their party. If Chris Christie runs again, he may fall into this category.
As far as the parties go, let’s look at the Democrats first. It certainly looks like Joe Biden is planning to go for round two. If he follows the pattern of his former boss, Barrack Obama, he will announce next month (April). But he can always wait longer. If he is not planning to run, he may wait even longer to announce that. Being a lame duck really does affect how people view your plans and policies. I announced that I would not seek reelection 17 months before the general election. I had made the decision and didn’t feel right leading people on and wanted my excellent staff to have time to find other jobs. But many of the lobbyists who had hung on my every word the previous 8 years, completely ignored me and openly opposed many of my thoughts which they had not had the courage to do before. As they say, if you want a friend in Washington, buy a dog. This is true, albeit to a lesser extent, even for presidents.
If Biden runs, he will freeze out most if not all of the major competitors. If he does not run, there will be a number of interested parties obviously including the current VP and the Governor of California.
The Republican nomination is less clear. Obviously, former President Trump is the “one to beat.” As of the date of this writing, no arrest or indictment for the Stormy Daniels issue has been made. If it does happen, it will likely only serve to further energize his base. That base is large and committed, but far from a majority of the party. Governor DeSantis is either in 1st or 2nd place in all the polling. But he has experienced what many governors do when they run for president. They now have to take positions on international issues. To his credit, DeSantis did not equivocate on the issue of Ukraine. But it is hard to argue that if Ukraine is a territorial dispute, then Taiwan and Israel/Iran are not. That position turns off the “national security” Republicans and is causing them to look elsewhere.
The point is that the Republican nomination may be more wide open than we thought. There are three declared candidates now but there could easily be ten by summer.
And then there is Senator Manchin. His reelection in West Virginia looks very dicey. He has made noises about running for president. If the nominees were Biden and Trump, I could see him running as a third party. And I would put his chances of winning in that three-way race as decent. There are lots of people who won’t vote for either Biden or Trump. Another possibility in the case that Trump does not get the nomination would be for him to go with a 3rd party like Teddy Roosevelt did in 1912 with the Bull Moose party. It didn’t go well for Teddy and would likely not go well for Donald. And in 1912, it split the Republican vote and resulted in the election of Democrat Woodrow Wilson, arguably one of our worst presidents. A Trump 3rd party would likely lead to a similar result.
In the 19 months before the election, a lot can happen in the world that will shape the election in ways we cannot now envision. Suppose that one of the world’s three biggest “powder kegs” (Ukraine, Taiwan, Middle East) were to blow up? National security would become a number one issue shaping votes. Suppose the economy tanks between now and then and it is more like the election of 2008 than 2020? Again, that will change minds. Furthermore, things like bank bailouts of the very wealthy while the average person struggles with inflation increase populism in both parties. That too can change what people are looking for in their leadership.
There’s a lot of economic, political, social, and international instability out there. A breakdown in any of those four areas could lead to an unexpected outcome in November 2024. Many people (me included) did not see the populist movement that lead to the rise of Donald Trump. This time, I just have a feeling that something will occur that leads to an unexpected general election contest.
We shall see.
I remain respectfully,
Congressman John Campbell
Drive Fast & Live Free