Turn Out the Lights, The Party’s Over

Next time you’re found, with your chin on the ground.
There’s a lot to be learned, so look around.

Just what makes that little old ant, think he’ll move that rubber tree plant.
Anyone knows an ant, can’t move a rubber tree plant.

But he’s got high hopes!
He’s got high hopes!
He’s got, high apple pie in the sky hopes!”

High Hopes  -  Frank Sinatra (1959)

…..

I am going to suspend the forecasts until next week so I can comment on the presidential race since many of you have been asking. I am old enough to remember when Monday Night Football started. Imagine, football on a weekday! Everybody watched.  The broadcast team was Howard Cosell and “Dandy” Don Meredith. Each game, when Meredith thought that one team was ahead by enough that the other team could no longer win, he would sing “Turn out the lights. The party’s over.” He was off key and did not have a good voice, but we all waited for when he would declare the game was effectively over.

The party is over in the GOP primary. For the third cycle in a row, Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee. For a time, it looked like over 50% of Republican voters wanted someone other than Trump and a field of 8 or so split that vote. But, as more candidates withdrew, Trump’s support increased to where he now controls over 50% of Republican voters. Nikki Haley will probably have enough money to continue through super Tuesday, but she can’t win with less than 50%.

Like it or not, the GOP is now Trump’s party. It is no longer a conservative party. It is a populist party. That means it is going to protect the interests of the common man and woman and small business even at the expense of big business and international trade. Trump populism is not fiscally conservative. He likes spending and debt both in his personal and public lives. International engagement will be tough but limited. Fighting the culture wars against the left will be a paramount objective. If you are a traditional fiscal conservative, socially liberal ,“neocon” globalist, there is not much for you to like in this transition.

Focus will soon turn to Trump’s pick for VP. I believe that President Trump will want three traits from that person. He will want them to be thoroughly loyal and not desert him as he feels Pence did in 2021. They should be capable but not running for president (since 2nd term Trump would be a lame duck) until Trump gives them the nod. Finally and most importantly, Trump’s political instincts are as good as anyone in the business, and he will pick someone who he thinks will help him win. Back in 2016, Trump was not trusted by the large evangelical Christian vote in the GOP. He put the strongest Christian in national politics on the ticket with him in Mike Pence, and he got that vote. Smart move.

Evangelicals are already with him this cycle. But he is weak with suburban women and with various minority groups. I think the most likely picks are Tim Scott, Elise Stefanik, and Sarah Huckabee Sanders. Just guesses at this point. It is not about the state they are from, but about a constituency that they could help bring to Trump in the swing states.

Across the aisle, Biden’s win in New Hampshire was unimpressive. He only got a bit greater percentage of the vote than Trump did, against nobodies with no money that the press ignored. I understand that Democrats had to write-in Biden’s name. But he’s the incumbent president. It’s not that hard.

Nobody really votes for Joe Biden. No one is excited by Joe Biden. They voted for him before and will do so again to vote against Donald Trump. The Donald is such a force of nature, that this election is all about him whether you vote for or against him.

Like the GOP, the Democratic party has changed. It is no longer the party of liberals. In fact, it is an extremely illiberal party. It is now an authoritarian leftist quasi-Marxist party. It is not Joe Biden’s party. It is a party run by a cabal of elites in politics, business, education, and media. Changing the culture is a major part of the new Democratic party’s agenda. Tear down or co-opt all the institutions and traditions of the “American way” and replace them with a new Marxist culture fashioned in Columbia and other institutions. You can see this in the massive pro-Hamas push by the Democratic base. They are fiscally profligate as Modern Monetary Theory teaches them to be. America should not lead in the world but defer to international organizations. Add authoritarian control to ensure that the populace thinks and acts as the elites want. It is now a party of the wealthy and people on government assistance. They have lost the middle class. But the more people on assistance, the more votes they get. If you are a traditional liberal Democrat, there is very little for you to like in this new party. A traditional liberal is not a cultural Marxist, is anti-authoritarian, supports Keynsian economics and believes the “American Way” is best.

This summer, if it looks like Biden is going to lose to Trump, or if Biden has a health crisis, the Democrats could replace him at the convention in Chicago in August. Remember that the president and vice president cannot be from the same state. So, no Newsom/Harris ticket. (or Trump/DeSantis for that matter) Too early to guess who a Biden replacement would be if they felt they had to. If they think they can beat Trump with Biden no matter how feeble he is, they will stick with him rather than risk a change. They can always let Harris be a puppet president for a few years. Their authoritarian control is run through institutions, not individuals.

We are entering a period where the two parties are changing. Both have bases that are energized by the changes, and they have others who feel alienated by the new direction. Both will have octogenarians at the top of the ticket, but plenty like-minded leaders to follow them. Regardless of who wins, the next four years will see heavy and vicious fighting over the culture, where there is almost no middle ground. Fiscal profligacy is likely to continue, until markets (likely the bond market) stop it. America’s role in the world is in flux and the world will adapt. On the border, crime, abortion, gun control – there are not many areas of agreement or even common ground. It will be fluid. Or some might say, chaotic.

This battle over the future of America is not a sprint. Maybe not a marathon either. Call it a 10K run. I want an American affirming traditional values and the American Way and American Exceptionalism. I want fiscal conservatism. I want America to remain the major force for peace and good worldwide because that keeps us safe here. I want a secure border, pro-life laws, the freedom to bear arms, criminals put in jail, blind justice and a color-blind culture. I want more things made in America by Americans even if it means tariffs and I have to pay a little more for those things. I want monopolies broken up, universities reimagined, and small businesses having the freedom to grow.

You probably agree with some and not all of that. I won’t get all of it. But, I sure as hell intend to fight for it.

I said in one of these missives last year that I would not vote for Donald Trump again. I am going to reverse that statement. I will admit that had the primary still been in doubt by the time I vote here in Arizona, I would have voted for Ron DeSantis. He is the best governor in America hands down in my opinion. But he is out, and I hope stays viable for 2028. Extreme competency that is boring is not in vogue in American right now. Someday, it will be. So, I will vote for Trump again. I watched Trump’s acceptance speech in New Hampshire. I hate the way he calls people names and his inability to be gracious in victory or defeat.

But he is one hell of a lot better than Joe Biden. Not a high bar, I admit.

When I was in elected office, I prided myself on finding areas of agreement with Democrats and working with them to get things done. In my 14 years in full time elected office, only in 3 of them did I experience Republican majorities in both houses and a Republican executive. So, you had to make deals to get anything done.

But that was a different time. I watch all the riots on the left in favor of the Hamas Nazis. They stormed the White House, shut down freeways, invade entertainment venues and so forth all in favor of killing the Jews. If you believe in the pure evil that these Islamic terror groups and regimes are all about, then you are evil too. One cannot compromise with evil. You have to defeat it. There is no other option.

The Democratic party has a strong pro-evil base. They are starting to tilt the party firmly in that direction. I hope reasonable Democrats stand up against this sickness. But history on that is not hopeful. If they become the party of evil, you cannot work with them. You have to defeat them.

I kept my MAGA hat from 2016. I’m going to put it back on.

I remain respectfully,
Congressman John Campbell
Drive Fast & Live Free