A Historical Perspective on Trump’s Foreign Policy
“The marching band came down along main street,
The soldier blues fell in behind.
I looked across and there I saw Billy,
Waiting to join the line.
And with her head upon his shoulder ,
His young and lovely fiancee.
From where I stood I saw she was crying,
And through her tears I heard her say:
‘Billy don’t be a hero, don’t be a fool with your life.
Billy, don’t be a hero, come back and make me your wife’
And as he started to go, she said ‘Billy, keep your head low.
Billy, don’t be a hero come back to me’”
The Leftist Media is trying to manufacture a scandal out of the Signal Chat conversation released by the Neo-Marxist Atlantic Magazine. In their rabid attempt to smear anyone and everyone associated with the Trump administration, they have missed the main point we can learn from the text exchange itself. These are serious and intelligent people with differing viewpoints having important discussions about the future of American foreign policy without feeling shackled to any previous strategies.
Bravo.
In the end, it will be Mr. Trump who breaks the tie on any policy decisions here. I have no direct contacts in the Trump foreign policy team. But, I’ve been around this stuff and these sorts of discussions for a couple of decades now. The policies of previous administrations, certainly Democrat ones but some Republican as well, have been very much reactionary and not informed by any overarching policy aims. What I see in the Trump team is very different. And it is very much influenced by history.
We are at a turning point in many dimensions. The world order is one of them. It is changing. It always changes. Once upon a time, the Germans, Japanese, Italians, Vietnamese, Mexicans and British were our enemies in one war or another. Today, they are allies. The Russians, Chinese and Iranians were our allies. Now, they are our enemies. Things have been pretty stable in international affairs since the wall fell nearly 50 years ago. But that stability is breaking down. A new, as yet undetermined order, is being formed.
Arguably, America is the current equivalent of the Roman and British Empires, although rarely does anyone use there term “American Empire.” The previous empires collapsed or waned for many reasons, but amongst them was that they spread themselves too thin trying to rule, govern and defend much of the known world at the time. The Trump team does not want to see America exhaust itself in this way. Being the “world’s policeman” is leading to excessive debt and economic malaise. “America First” policy, doesn’t just mean think about the country first. It means only concern yourself with issues that affect America directly. That means a focus on North America, and only other places where Americans and American interests are in direct jeopardy.
Another historical perspective relates to the 19th century American policy of “manifest destiny.” This term was coined in 1845 and was the belief that America was destined to spread democracy and capitalism across North America. Leftist history professors have denigrated this policy as racist (as they call everything with which they disagree) imperialistic and nationalistic. But America grew under this policy and the territories acquired benefited by being a part of the United States. I recommend you watch this five-minute video from Prager U to understand President Polk and manifest destiny.
After you watch it, tell me you don’t see similarities to Donald J. Trump’s policies?
We have not added nor really even considered adding new territory since the 1950s. Trump’s ambitions for Greenland, the Panama Canal and Canada, as well as destroying the cartels in Mexico, are his attempt to bring this growth and ambition back to the American psyche.
Economically, we have been in an era of “free trade” since World War II. It was believed by NeoCons (including me) that this would bring peace, prosperity, democracy and capitalism to the world. It has not done so. Now, it is instead enriching some countries who benefit from free trade on exports, but don’t allow free trade on many imports. It has left the United States vulnerable as many critical needs and components are now entirely sourced overseas, often from potential adversaries. As the Trump team begins to erect trade tariffs and restrictions intending on reversing this, the rest of the world will have to react. If Trump tariffs a product from China and exports of that product to the U.S. decline, China will pivot to sell those products to Europe. Europe will have to impose tariffs or see it’s own industries decimated. We are already seeing this with cheap Chinese EV cars which threaten the European automakers.
After World War II, many international organizations were created to try to get all the countries to work together and prevent war. The UN, G20, IMF, WHO, WTO and probably others I have forgotten, have become calcified and useless if not harmful entities manipulated to achieve outcomes not in the best interests of the United States or the west in general. Many of these will likely be disbanded, or become even more irrelevant, if the United States pulls out. We will go back to more bilateral as well as regional agreements instead of trying for worldwide agreements, which simply have not worked.
Much of this change is being driven by the U.S. debt and deficits, which are finally being nearly universally recognized as nearing a tipping point at which time the debt would no longer be able to be sold and financed. Said debt could bring down the American Empire as the Soviet Union collapsed due to economic rather than military pressures. Expansion; tariffs; no longer policing the world; producing more goods at home. All of these things can help to get the debt and deficit under control, in addition to other uses such as national security.
In the 100 mph speed of everything Trump, he is moving on every front at once. Let’s translate these reborn policies into the world as it exists today. I have laid above where Trump wants to go. But getting there from where we are now is no easy lift.
Ukraine is a European problem to be settled by Europeans. The America First and Only policy doesn’t see why we need to be involved in a conflict involving directly or indirectly a bunch of wealthy first world states with nuclear weapons. They can resolve it themselves. Trump is trying to negotiate a peace as we know. But failing that, does he step up US involvement or withdraw and leave it to Europe? My guess is he does the latter. Trump would clearly like to be able to normalize relations with Russia, if for no other reason than to pull them away from China. At the time of this writing, Trump is frustrated with Putin. He has bent over backwards to give him a way out but Putin seems to want more. Trump will need to move heavier pressure on Russia now.
If we don’t see a war in Europe as our problem, why do we see a war in the Middle East as our problem? Back in the 1970s, without Middle Eastern oil, our economy was sunk. But that is no longer the case. The main difference today is that Iran and its proxies are killing and capturing Americans wherever they can and have directly threatened the United States if they acquire a nuclear weapon. Russia is not directly threatening the U.S. and has only captured or killed Americans in Ukraine and Russia. If the war in the Middle East could be confined to the Middle East, perhaps Trump would leave it to Israel to keep things balanced. They are very competent. Again Trump is trying to peacefully negotiate with Iran. The letter he wrote to Khomeini was very well drafted. It appears Iran has rejected the overture. I presume now that their nuclear program will have to be removed with military action.
Taiwan is an issue that directly affects the United States because a war there would plunge our economy into depression as the tech industry would come to a halt without chips from TSMC. This is similar to needing Middle Eastern oil in the 1970s. The answer here is not to put American troops in Taiwan. It is to establish that production in the U.S. and to weaken China’s economic ability to wage war.
Then, there’s all the North American ambitions that I mentioned earlier. This is where American interests are most direct due to adjacency. Canada as the 51st state is a bit of a stretch. I don’t want their healthcare system and I’m not sure I would want Quebec at all. And, you cannot stop things coming from China if they can easily get to the U.S. through Mexico or Canada.
So what does the world as reshaped by these policies look like, were they to be successful? Europe handling their own affairs and Russia again as an ally. A new regime in Iran and the Abraham accords finally in place with Jews, Arabs and Muslims living side-by-side in peace. America exerting more influence in North America, acquiring more territory, and establishing independence from other continents in many important minerals and commodities and manufacturing. China dares not take aggressive military action because the U.S. military is too strong on sea, in the air and in space. And deficits are eliminated as the national debt as a share of GDP is reduced.
I know, I know. And why didn’t I include a partridge in a pear tree?
The main point here is that the first half of the 20th century was dominated by war in Europe and Asia. The second half of that century was the cold war. Since then, our foreign policy has been operating as though the cold war was still going on, when it was not. It is time for a new international paradigm.
The song at the top of this missive was actually written and originally preformed by a British group called Paper Lace. The song hit number one in the UK by that group. But the Bo Donaldson cover was what hit number one in the U.S. Although the war in the song is never mentioned, the fact that the soldiers were “blue” certainly leads one to conclude that it is about the War Between The States. Why a British group did a song about an American war (where the British favored the losing side) is beyond me. The final verses of the song explain that Billy died a hero as was recorded in a letter to his fiancee who “threw the letter away.”
I remain respectfully,
Congressman John Campbell
Drive Fast & Live Free
Follow me on X and listen to me on the nationally syndicated The Hugh Hewitt Show: