It’s Time for Another Election?
“The Taj Mahal and the Eiffel Tower are mine to see on clear days.
You thought that I would need a crystal ball to see right through the haze.
Well, here’s a poke at you.
You’re gonna to choke on it too.
You’re gonna lose that smile,
Because all the while,
I can see for miles and miles.
I can see for miles and miles
I can see for miles and miles and miles and miles and miles.”
Wait. What? Didn’t we just have an election? Don’t tell me that all those ads and incessant text messages are coming back?
Fear not. Unless you are in New Jersey, Virginia, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Louisiana or one of the special congressional election districts, you are safe from electioneering bombardments until 2026.
That said, I was in full time elected office for 14 years in which time I stood for election either in a primary, general or special election 17 times. That is more than once a year. If you are in an office like Congress that is up every two years, the day you are elected you party with adult beverages. The next day, you are working on your reelection because it comes up very fast and you need to firm up your support and raise money and all that good stuff.
So, you may not be thinking of 2026 right now. But I assure you that everyone in Congress and at 1600 Pennsylvania avenue is. As are all those people who hope to replace people currently in office in Washington or in any of the 50 state capitols.
Let’s take a look at that next election that may seem far off to some. But, in spite of the many months yet to pass before said election, the landscape of 2026 is affecting what is going on in Washington right now.
Trump wants to hold both Houses of Congress so that the effective part of his four year term is the full four years and not just two. The Democrats want to take at least one of the two Houses to provide a roadblock to the Trump agenda. If they take the Senate, they can block confirmations of judges and such. If they take the House, they can push to reverse DOGE and increase spending and investigate the heck out of the administration. None of this, of course, is new. We have seen these actions throughout this century regardless of who held the White House.
Each of the last four presidents (one of those being Trump 1.0) lost their congressional majority in a mid-term election, either in their first or second term. Recent history is not encouraging for Mr. Trump in this regard.
That said, the Senate map is encouraging for Republicans. Republicans have three seats to defend in Ohio, Maine and North Carolina. In all of those it is expected that the incumbents will run for reelection which increases chances of holding the seats. These are the Democrats main pickup opportunities. But, if they pick up all three, and lose no seats elsewhere, the Senate would be 50-50, which still gives Republicans effective control with the Vice President’s tie-breaking vote.
Republicans are eyeing Georgia, Michigan, New Hampshire and Minnesota as pickups. Only in Georgia is a Democrat incumbent running. Georgia is the most likely pickup for Republicans. The others are more of a stretch.
Because Republicans start with a three seat advantage, it would take a major blue wave for the Dems to pick up 4 seats net and win a majority in the Senate in 2026.
In the House, Republicans should settle out with a five seat majority once all of the vacancies are filled. The major thing to know about the House, is that the number of competitive seats keeps shrinking as blue places get bluer and red places redder and gerrymandering continues. The way we have traditionally looked at vulnerable congressional seats is to find those members of congress sitting in districts where the opposite party’s presidential candidate won. In other words, an R in a seat Harris won or a D in a Trump district. There used to be as many as 50 such seats when I was in Congress.
Right now, there are only 16. 13 Democrats in seats Trump won and only three Republicans in districts that Harris won. These are not the only seats that either side thinks they can win. But there are clearly more vulnerable Democrats than Republicans at the moment. Even when you include other supposedly “swing” districts, there are maybe 25 seats in play. That is not many. Both sides will pour tons of money into those races.
But there are plenty enough opportunities for the Democrats to pick up 6 seats and a majority. It is a slightly uphill battle for them statistically, but more achievable than the Senate.
Particularly for the House, so much will have to do with the overall feeling in the electorate. One of the best judges of that, this far in advance, is the result of special elections. There will be five of them in the next few months, starting with Florida on April 1st. All five of these special elections are for “safe” seats - two Dem and three Republican. It is unlikely any of these will be flipped. But even if they are not, if the “safe” candidate struggles to win, there is a message there about how the electorate may be leaning.
There are two other things I would like to briefly discuss that are not in the title of this missive. The first is the Mike Waltz “Chat-gate” issue where the editor of the far, far, far left Atlantic magazine was on a chat with senior Trump administration officials discussing actions against the Houthis. Look, something was not double-checked here or the people who double-checked it were working together. There was a screw up.That said, the whole affair has me raging mad for the following reasons:
Someone (deep state) did this intentionally. I have personal experience with the Atlantic’s leadership, which is a story for another day. Suffice it to say that they are some of the most reprehensible human beings I ever encountered in Washington. No Trump person should or would talk to them. The Atlantic Editor’s number was listed on the chat with a different name. Not a mistake. A clearly intentional act to create negative press against the administration. This is what the deep state does. DOGE needs to fire al lot more people. Fire them all if you have to.
Had this happened during a Biden communication, we would never know about it. The press would protect the administration, as they did hundreds of times, and not reveal what they knew. This is how it works. A Democrat makes 10 mistakes and maybe one is reported. A Republican makes 10 mistakes and all 10 lead the news.
What during Biden the press called “retaliatory strikes,” they now call “war.” They were discussing “war.” Never once did Biden officials discuss “war” as far as the press is concerned even though the discussions were about the same topics.
Finally, when you see the transcript that the Atlantic released, I found it very encouraging. There was genuine discussion and disagreement as to the path to be followed. This is good. A team of rivals. The Vice President even took a position different from the president, which is very rare. These are competent people having substantive discussions trying to do the right thing in a situation where find the “right thing” is very difficult.
When I see the lengths to which the Neo-Marxist Left (The Democratic Party today) is going to (violence, lies, subterfuge, spying) to defeat Trump, it makes me even more of a Trump cheerleader. Look at what Trump is trying to do: end wars; lift up the working class; save our nation from a debt spiral; protect our borders and restore our culture. What is it in that agenda that the left finds so reprehensible?
Finally, my dear mother-in-law, Margaret Alesen Sheppard, went to be with the Lord this week at age 98. My two parents and two parents-in-law were different people. But they had many shared values they left with me. Amongst them was how important politics and government is and how important it is to be engaged in making it better.
Any of us who have achieved success in this great country understand that we would not have done so were it not for the freedoms and structure of our Republic. Had Elon Musk stayed in South Africa, he would not have been able to do the many great accomplishments he has had in America. We have to fight so that in the words of Benjamin Franklin “we can keep it.”
May God wrap his loving arms around you Maggie. As we look to the future of your great grandchildren, I, and your wonderful daughter, will do what we can in our remaining time down here to preserve the greatest country that God has thus far put on this earth.
I remain respectfully,
Congressman John Campbell
Drive Fast & Live Free
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