Observations

Oh Lord, it’s hard to be humble,
When you’re perfect in every way.
I can’t wait to look in the mirror,
‘cause I get better looking each day.
To know me is to love me.
I must be a hell of a man.
Oh Lord, it’s hard to be humble,
But I’m doin’ the best that I can.

It’s Hard to be Humble  - Mac Davis

…..

By now, you all have heard lots of analysis on why the “red wave” broke just north of Jacksonville, and the polls were wrong again, albeit in the other direction this time.  I do not intend to give you some new analysis of why things happened as they did on November 8th. You can read all about whose “fault” it was or who gets the “credit” from others.  Instead, I will give you some observations and point out some trends and details about which you might not be aware.

Then, you can draw your own conclusions.

Governors: Only one incumbent governor failed in a reelection attempt. Nevada Democrat Governor Steve Sisolak was defeated by Republican Joe Lombardo, by less than two points. All other incumbents, Republican and Democrat, won reelection. No huge message there, except perhaps that incumbency still has power with the electorate. What is more interesting is the margin. The Republican governors of Florida and Ohio won by approximately 20 and 25 points respectively in states where Republicans do not have much of a registration advantage. But the Democrat governors of the three biggest, bluest states, California, New York and Illinois won by “only” 18, 5 and 11 points in states with huge Dem registration advantages. Are the bluest voters getting a little tired of their blue leadership? Or are these discrepancies just a function of the job the incumbents have done in the last four years? Doesn’t feel like there was a national message in the governor’s races.

Senate: Yes, the Democrats will retain control of the Senate. But the result in Georgia still matters. If the Democrats win in Georgia, then they can lose the vote of Senator Manchin and still pass things and confirm appointments. Manchin is displeased that Majority Leader Schumer reneged on the side deal he made about energy regulation in exchange for Manchin’s deciding vote on the misnamed Inflation Reduction Act. Manchin is also up for reelection in 2024 in a state that Trump won by 39 points! 51 votes would also allow the Dems to control all the committees and do more investigations and not worry what Manchin says or does. It is still a big deal. The DNC and their donors will go all out.

House: Republicans will have a very small majority in the House, similar to what The Democrats had for the last two years. Nancy Pelosi was able to take a 3-5 seat majority and pass a lot of legislation. Kevin McCarthy is unlikely to be able to do the same. This is not because McCarthy is less capable. It is a function of the nature of both parties. Democrats are collectivists by nature. That’s part of what makes you a Democrat. They operate like a union. The individual is subservient to the “needs” of the collective. So, when they are told to vote for something because the union says so, they do. Republicans are individualists by nature. They believe in the power and dignity of the individual over that of the collective. They go their own way. That will make it hard to get 99% of those Republicans to pass a bill or vote for a Speaker.

Democrats United: The 2022 Democrats beat the historic averages of performance for the controlling party in a midterm. Even though they lost the House, the scale of those losses was a victory in a historic sense. This is seen as a ratification of their major policy shift to the left. Any hope that the Dems might move back to the middle after this election is gone. If anything, they will move farther left. And they are united in their euphoria over beating the odds. The few moderates that are left will be quiet and go along. Furthermore, If Biden wants to run again, the party will unite behind him. After all, he led them to legislative and electoral victories.

Republicans Divided: On the other side of the aisle, the picture is very different. There are few policy differences amongst Republicans these days. How we respond to the Ukrainian situation is the only major one I can think of. What divides Republicans is not policy, but is the personality of Donald J. Trump. We now know that Trump is running to be only the second US President to serve two non-consecutive terms. (the other being Grover Cleveland in the 19th century). He has a large and passionate following in the party. To them, Trump is their “voice” and an attack on him is an attack on them. The “never Trumpers” were always a vocal but relatively small group. However, there is a growing chorus amongst “mainstream” conservatives who vociferously oppose Trump and are now fed up with his antics, name calling and general misbehavior. If Trump is the nominee in 2024, many of this latter group will not vote for him. If he is not the nominee, many of the Trump devotees will not vote for whoever is the nominee, or will encourage Trump to form a third party, ala Teddy Roosevelt. Either way, these divisions over a personality make the prospects for winning the White House in two years rather dim.

That said, a lot can happen in two years. The song I chose for this missive is essentially and ode to Donald Trump. It was written in jest. I’m not sure the former president would see it that way.

More observations in the next missive. Until then, Happy Thanksgiving!

I remain respectfully,
Congressman John Campbell
Drive fast and Live Free