Predictions

Time keeps on slippin’, slippin’ slippin’
Into the future. 
I want to fly like an eagle, to the sea.
Fly like an eagle let my spirit carry me

Fly Like an Eagle – Steve Miller Band

…..

You are not paying anything to read this blog. That is good, because I am going to make some predictions about a bunch of things over the next month and said predictions are probably of little if any value. However, I will make them anyway. I obviously think I’m right about these things or I would not make any prediction at all. The captivating Mrs. Campbell, my wife of 43 years, will be happy to enumerate all the times I have been wrong…if you have a few days.

I will do these over a period of weeks and the word “prediction” will be in the title of all of them that qualify as such along with the subject upon which I opine.

So, here goes the first one:

November Elections: There are very few things in politics that are sure things. Republicans winning the House in 2022 is about as close as it gets to a sure thing. You all know the reasons why the party in power is in trouble. You all know that the party in power regularly loses seats in midterm elections. You all know the historically low approval ratings of President Biden.

But there is even more. The generic congressional ballot polling which asks people if they favor a Republican or a Democrat in Congress has always favored Democrats even in years when Republicans had substantial victories. All of those generic congressional polls now favor Republicans. That is unheard of in recent decades. Furthermore, you can tell a sinking ship from the behavior of the rats on it. Democrats in competitive seats have been retiring in large numbers rather than raise millions, work like a dog and still lose. Even more telling is the number of Democrat committee chairs retiring rather than be relegated to ranking member status. And in New York, the Democrat Member of Congress in charge of trying to keep their majority (DCCC Chair) is moving to a different district where he has 5% more Democratic voters in order to save himself.

The bigger question is – how big will the majority be? Democrats only have a 6-seat majority now. That means that Republicans already hold a number of swing districts. Therefore, I think that Rs wind up with “only” about a 25-seat majority. That would still be a substantial majority in historical terms. However many pundits think the Democrats’ fortunes are so bad that they may lose 50-60 seats. If that happens, it will not be because Republicans got out the vote or won over swing voters. To have that big a majority would require that people who have been loyal Democratic voters for years have changed teams. Were that to occur, it could signal a large and lasting shift in party dynamics.

In that eventuality, however, Republicans would then have to try to hold on to those voters who migrated from blue to red by not following an agenda that was too far to the right. Frankly, much of the Republicans fortunes heading into this election are not the result of what Rs did right. They are a result of what Ds did wrong. The Ds have followed a hard-left agenda and not backed off one iota from it even in the face of policy or political failure. Republicans were just standing there to benefit. But the Rs can give it back and many times have done so. The leadership of presumed Speaker Kevin McCarthy will be critical to further success in 2024.

The outcome of the Senate is less clear. The “tide” of the year is certainly in the Republican’s favor. But there are only 4 seats that Ds could realistically lose but 5 the Rs could lose. On balance, however, I predict Republicans get 51 seats for the slimmest of Senate majorities. I think Herschel Walker will win in Georgia. That’s the one net pickup Rs get. We may win in AZ but will could lose either NC or PA. It’s going to be very close.

So, my prediction is that Republicans hold both houses of Congress for Joe Biden’s final 2 years. Donald Trump only faced a hostile House during his final 2 years, which was problem enough for him. There is no indication that Biden will relent or compromise on a single issue, which is of course the opposite of the platform on which he ran. That means gridlock and increasing acrimony leading in to 2024. Which will be the subject of a future prediction.

I remain respectfully,
Congressman John Campbell
Drive Fast & Live Free