Predictions: EVs and Trouble at Tesla
Well, if I had money, I tell you what I’d do.
I’d go downtown and buy a Mercury or two.
Crazy ‘bout a Mercury. Lord, I’m crazy ‘bout a Mercury.
I’m gonna buy me a Mercury and cruise it up and down the road.
Well, the girl I love, I stole her from a friend.
He got lucky stole her back from me again.
She heard he had a Mercury. Lord she’s crazy ‘bout a Mercury.
I’m gonna buy me a Mercury and cruise it up and down the road.”
Mercury Blues - Alan Jackson
…..
I am not anti-electric vehicles. In fact, I own two of them. I did not buy them because I believe any of the garbage that somehow, I am saving the planet with them. I am a car guy and I bought them because I enjoy the very different driving experience and because I think the technology is fascinating.
Neither of them are Teslas, however. Personally, I am not fond of Teslas. I think most of them are ugly, have cheap, plain interiors, are badly manufactured and I do not like having to deal only with a huge, impersonal manufacturer rather than my local car dealer. That said, I admire the technology in the cars. I will admit that I never thought they would sell as many cars in the U.S. and worldwide as they are currently selling. They are on track to sell over a million cars in 2022. That is a lot.
I now see storm clouds on the horizon for Tesla. Those clouds actually have little to do with the car itself.
Tesla has had a lot of product problems in its first 10 years or so. The “auto pilot” self-driving feature has been involved in a number of horrific crashes and deaths either due to malfunction or misuse. Cars have spontaneously combusted in garages causing house fires. Fit and finish and multiple quality issues have plagued owners. Tesla is the only car manufacturer that does not allow JD Power access to its owner base for customer satisfaction surveys. Tesla says they are protecting the privacy of their customers. They are the only car manufacturer that does not participate with JD Power. Bentley and Rolls Royce don’t see a privacy issue but Tesla does? Some survey companies have used other ways to reach Tesla owners and when they do, Tesla’s quality comes out dead last in the industry, although these are not statistically accurate surveys because of the haphazard method of obtaining customer information.
Had problems like this happened to Ford or General Motors, the press would have been all over it and the reputation of those cars and companies would have been severely damaged. Anyone remember the Pinto? But the press has given Tesla a pass. Why? I suspect that the leftist press does not want to hurt the company that basically invented the practical electric car. Furthermore, Elon Musk personally has a cult-like following which vociferously defends him and the cars from attacks. Well-known long-time car industry executive Bob Lutz famously commented that Tesla is not a car company but is a “religious cult” around the personality of Elon Musk. And finally, Tesla is the only car manufacturer to build cars in the big blue state of California and was also based there – big plusses for the leftist media and tech cabal.
But now, Elon is changing some things and other factors are changing around him. The leftist cabal is starting to fall out of love with the world’s richest person.
Let’s review some of Elon’s “missteps” from the perspective of the left. He moved his company HQ as well as his personal residence from California to Texas. Then he sold stock in Tesla and presumably avoided 13.3% California income tax thereon. He has successfully resisted attempts to unionize his plants. He is proposing to buy Twitter and transform it from a place of leftist-driven censorship into a truly open platform. (full disclosure – Twitter silenced me back in 2020 for reporting the completely accurate NY Post stories on Hunter Biden). He has recently declared himself to be a Republican.
Musk essentially invented the practical EV which, according to the left, will save the planet. But that is not enough for them. You must be all-in on the total leftist agenda, which Elon clearly is not. As an example of how things are starting to change, I recently read a piece in Road & Track magazine, of all places, that concluded that Elon is a racist and so, by extension, are Teslas. You see, he recently tweeted that Americans should be having more babies because the U.S birth rate has fallen below the replacement rate of 2.2 children per child-bearing woman. This tweet, according to the writer, was clear example of racism since he was proposing more population in a country that is majority white. Furthermore, he was born in apartheid South Africa, whose policies he clearly wants back, according to the writer. It’s all lunacy of course, but it shows how the worm is turning with the media. Furthermore, an ESG rating group (environmental, social and governmental) kicked the planet saving electric vehicle maker off their list because it is a “racist company” and has poor working conditions. You can’t make this stuff up.
Additionally, other car manufacturers are coming out with some very good EVs. Tesla was first and they will always come to mind first for an EV buyer. But there are a lot of options out there now that did not exist just 2 years ago.
On to a prediction about EVs in general in America. Many manufacturers are pledging to be 100% EV by 2030 or whenever. This makes ESG investors (the subject of a future prediction blog) happy as well as most governments around the world. Of course, we are probably 5 years away from when a car introduced in 2030 will be designed, so the manufacturers have plenty of time to change their minds.
I believe that EVs will make up about 25% of American vehicle sales by 2030. Not more, unless there is a currently unforeseen technological breakthrough. EVs are not good in temperatures below 20 degrees or above 105 degrees because of the need to keep the batteries at an operating temperature. Range can decline by 40% or more in those conditions. Add in wind or rain or snow and the range declines further. Most of the country experiences temperatures like that at some point in the year. That also explains why temperate California is the location of nearly half of all EVs currently on U.S. roads. EVs also have limited range and slow charging times and therefore are not well suited for trips of more than 200 miles. EVs are also considerably more expensive than their gas counterparts. The minerals necessary to make EVs and the batteries are in short supply and the mines to make more cannot be dug overnight. So, there is a capacity limitation on EVs as well. And, the price differential with gas-powered cars is going up not down.
EVs have their place. I just don’t think its anywhere near 50% of the market, not to mention 100%. One of the hottest vehicles sold today is the new Ford Maverick. It is a cute little pickup that is versatile and has some cool features. It is gas powered and with the hybrid motor gets 45 mpg. And you can get a nice one for $25,000.
That’s what people want. Something cool, versatile and cheap to buy and operate.
Tell that to the Davos crowd.
I remain respectfully,
Congressman John Campbell
Drive Fast & Live free