Predictions: In the Year 2024
“What a field day for the heat.
A thousand people in the street.
Singing songs and carrying signs.
Mostly saying ‘hooray for our side’
It’s time we stop, hey what’s that sound.
Everybody look what’s goin’ down.”
For What it’s Worth - Buffalo Springfield
…..
As Winston Churchill said, “the future, though imminent, is obscure.” That is particularly true today. Just this morning, I read one prediction from a major source that the price of oil is going to $380 a barrel, and another from a similar source that it will drop to $45. With so much in flux and transition around the world, this is a harder time than most to make predictions 3 years in the future. But I will do it anyway, with the caveat that any more “black swans” cruising in like the virus can always change everything.
I predict that the 2024 Presidential race will pit California governor Gavin Newsom against Florida governor Ron DeSantis. There you go. Let’s look at the Democratic field first.
I know that Biden says he is running again. He has to say that or else he will be seen as a lame duck the remainder of whose term we can just wait out. I remember well after I announced in 2013 that I would not run for reelection in 2014, how many lobbyists and others who had always been keen to know my opinions now wouldn’t even take my calls. Biden is too old and too unpopular. He won the 2020 primary by being “not Bernie Sanders” and the general election by being “not Donald Trump.” There will be better options in 2024. Vice President Harris’s lack of political skills, upon which I have commented for some time, are now on full display for the world to see. Those Democrats who have ambitions to be president (there are always many in both parties) see these weaknesses in the incumbents and are preparing to challenge.
Gavin Newsom just began running ads on Fox News, of all places, in Florida. He is running for reelection in California in November. Floridians cannot vote for him. Yet, he is running ads there. I actually think it is brilliant. Kamala Harris is a terrible politician. Newsom is very skilled. And he is not encumbered by any principles. He goes where he thinks the tide will give him power. His ad, amongst other things, implores Floridians to “fight” their governor or “join us in California where we still believe in freedom. Freedom of speech. Freedom to choose. Freedom from hate and freedom to love”. It’s all crap, but very clever crap. Republicans in general, and DeSantis in particular, have been gaining traction with a message of resisting the restrictions on their freedoms guaranteed by the Constitution which the leftist policies are tearing down. Newsom sees this is working and wants to spin the Democratic message to one of freedom, albeit a very different set of “freedoms.” Also, he cannot compete against DeSantis’ success in Florida on every economic, crime, education and standard of living metric. So, he has made up his own set of measures to try to say that California is way better then Florida. The media and technology cabal will probably grab this message and run with it promoting it in every way they can.
These ads are prima facie evidence of Newsom’s ambitions, which we knew already. But they also show where he thinks the opposition lay. He wants to be the Democratic DeSantis – A successful governor courageously taking the message of his state’s success across the nation.
Yes, there will be other Democrats. I think Colorado governor Jared Polis is another very attractive potential candidate. But it might take one more election cycle for him. The also-rans from 2020 will be there, but I just don’t think they have the appeal of Newsom. Please understand, I can’t stand the guy and dislike his policies even more. But he is young, energetic, attractive, well-spoken, skilled in politics and governor of the largest state. That is a good combo.
On the Republican side, obviously the big question is whither thou goest Donald J. Trump? I have no inside knowledge here. I suspect that he wants to run in order to avenge his defeat in 2020. And, if he were one in a field of 12 GOP candidates, he would clearly get a plurality of the vote. But, he may decide not to run for any number of reasons including health, age or legal problems or just because he finds he has plenty of influence now without having to deal with holding office again. If he went head-to-head against DeSantis, some polls show that DeSantis would win.
My instincts just tell me that there will be someone new with both parties in 2024. As with the Democrats, there are a dozen GOPers who will run or want to run. DeSantis has the clear advantage at the moment. The fact that Newsom wants to emulate him shows how DeSantis has fashioned a positive national image. Like the Democrats, there are other attractive candidates like Mike Pompeo, but I think the Florida governor has the whole package.
Assuming Republicans take the House in 2022, they would likely lose some seats in 2024. The Senate map in 2024 favors Republicans taking some seats back.
So, who wins between DeSantis and Newsom? Oh, come on. I can’t answer everything just now, can I?
I remain respectfully,
Congressman John Campbell
Drive fast & Live free