The Political Winds Shift… Again
“Well the eagle’s been flying slow.
And the flag’s been flying low.
And a lot of people sayin’ that America’s fixin’ to fall.
Well, speaking just for me,
And some people from Tennessee,
We’ve got a thing or two to tell Y’all.
This lady may have stumbled,
But she ain’t never fell.
And if the Russians don’t believe that,
They can all go straight to hell.
We’re gonna put her feet back on the path of righteousness and then,
God Bless America, again.”
On July 17th, I wrote you all about the surge Trump was having in polling and how it looked like reliably blue states like Virginia, Minnesota and New Hampshire were in play. Today, less than a month later, I have to tell you that if the election were held today, I think Harris/Walz would win. How did this happen and what’s ahead? Let’s take a look.
I will use a bunch of sports analogies today. Elections, after all, are like sports in that they are a competition where somebody wins and somebody loses.
Trump Campaign: Whether you like it or not, campaigns matter. The Trump campaign since the Republican convention has been abysmal. They have made a ton of unforced errors (tennis reference) losing points for no reason. One example is where Trump derided the sitting Republican governor of a must win state for Trump, Georgia. Governor Kemp is a Republican with a 63% approval rating in his state. A lot of Republicans, independents and some Democrats like him. Why attack him? It’s not just an unforced error, it’s an “own goal” (soccer reference). Trump basically scored points for the opposing team without the opposing team doing a thing. And to what purpose? Many times in my political career, I was nice to people I despised or did not respect because that’s how you get things done and win elections. It’s also polite.
Harris Campaign: The conservative media is slamming Harris/Walz for not doing any interviews or taking any questions or saying anything not on a teleprompter script. That is a legitimate criticism. But it is effective campaigning. As I have noted before, Harris’ record on the campaign trail throughout her career has been terrible. She is just not good at it and not appealing. But right now she is ahead. So, sit on the ball and let the clock run out (football reference). If we were still in February, there would be too much time left on the clock for that strategy. However, the election is just 83 days away as I write this and some people will be voting in just over 30 days. It’s the 4th quarter. Run off-tackle plays and don’t throw the ball far downfield. You don’t have to.
As most of you know, I live in one of the swing states (Arizona) so I see all the ads that campaigns are running. When Biden was still the Democratic candidate, his ads were almost all negative on Trump. I suppose the calculus was that everyone knows who Joe Biden is and it is easier to remind them about Trump’s failings than to try and say good things about yourself. However, the Harris ads are completely different. They are entirely positive ads about her. Unless you live in California, Kamala is still largely unknown to voters. Her profile as VP was low and arguably vacuous. So, this gives the campaign an opportunity to get out there early and define her before the Trump campaign does. Smart.
When You Say Nothing at All: Maybe I should have started the blog with this country song, for which I think the best version is a 1995 cover by Alison Krauss (a hauntingly beautiful song) . Read on and you will see why I picked the song I did. Anyway, if you look at what the Trump campaign was doing when their star was rising, they were doing very little. Biden was imploding and Democrats were divided and Trump stayed extremely quiet and let the other side get him votes. Today, Kamala is rising as she is saying nothing about policy or positions and doing no interviews.
What does this say about the quality of our candidates or perhaps the involvement of the electorate when, as the song says, “you say it best, when you say nothing at all?”
Event Driven: In spite of the fact that we thought we knew who both candidates were 6 months ago, the campaigns bumped along with little changing until the June debate. Then there was the assassination attempt, followed by the Republican convention and then Biden’s withdrawal, Kamala’s ascension, and the announcement of both VP candidates. Each of those events moved opinions and polls and narratives dramatically. This has been an event driven election.
As I pointed out in the opening paragraph, if the election were held today, my opinion is that Harris would win. So, Trump needs another “event” to move him forward. Hence, after not wanting to debate he now wants three. More chances to create an “event.” I read a quote once by a famous baseball manager extolling why baseball was “the greatest game of all” because you could not sit on the ball and run out the clock when you’re ahead. You have to “throw the ball across the plate and give the other guy a chance.” Trump is hoping for that hanging curve pitch in the debate or wherever he can find it.
An event can be campaign related, of course. Remember Dukakis in the tank? The Democratic convention could be a big boost for Harris, or could hurt her if the Palestinian Nazis make a 1968-like scene. But events could also happen in the economy, or in a war or terrorist attack or something else. Given how things have gone so far this year, it seems unlikely that we make it to November 5th without another impactful “event” of some sort.
Tax on Tips: Trump proposed eliminating income tax on tips a few weeks ago while campaigning in Nevada. This week, Kamala proposed to do the same thing, while campaigning in Nevada. This is disgusting political pandering by both of them. Why should one person doing the same job, earning the same income pay less in taxes as another person just because of whether that income is received in the form of a tip, or bonus, or hourly or monthly pay? And why is it that the worst policy proposal Trump has made is the only one Harris has chosen to adopt?
Good News on Divisiveness: The far left of the Democratic caucus in the House is “the squad.” Their far right equivalent in the Republican conference is “the freedom caucus.” Both of these groups lost elections and therefore members in primaries in recent weeks. The squad and the freedom caucus are still there, but their numbers and influence has taken a hit. We are still a very divided country. But there is now some evidence that the gap may stop widening.
What to do: Many of you readers who are conservative are shuddering at the prospects of a President Harris and believe it means the end of free speech and America as we know it. Those of you who are leftist (yes, some are regular readers) believe a second Trump term means the end of democracy, and therefore America as we know it.
Whereas I believe a President Harris would likely be the worst president in American history, I don’t believe either she or Trump mean the end of America. Hence the Charlie Daniel’s song at the beginning of this missive. He wrote that song in May of 1980, when Jimmy Carter was president and a lot of bad things were happening in the economy and the world. He was right then that we did not fall. I do not think we will fall regardless of the outcome of the election.
The purpose of this blog is to “look through the chaos.” If Kamala wins, she will almost certainly face a Republican controlled Senate and perhaps House as well. There is also the originalist Supreme Court that currently sits. She can do damage, no question. But she can’t erase the country. Similarly, if Trump wins, there is no reason to think that his second term will be dramatically different than his first. Democracy did not end between 2017 and 2021 and it will not end this time. Additionally, Republicans will preserve the filibuster in the Senate which will check Trump there, and Democrats could regain the House majority.
This country is more than one man or one woman. It is an idea, a culture, a philosophy founded in freedom. Entrepreneurs are still going to create and invent. Sports figures and entertainers will dazzle us with talent and commitment to hard work. Neighbors will help each other, without asking for political affiliation. Mothers and Fathers will raise wonderful, well-adjusted children.
The captivating Mrs. Campbell and I attend a church here in Scottsdale, Arizona. The pastor has been preaching on the Book of Esther from the Old Testament. In that book, some propose to “kill the jews,” an idea that continues to this day amongst evil people. I expected the sermon to be about that. It was not. It was instead about “let not the dark forces of this world divide us.” God is supreme. The Donald and Kamala are not. Dark forces are out there and people will make mistakes and bad things will happen. But we believers know where truth and beauty and everlasting life resides. And that is in Almighty God, upon whom we can count for solace in times of need.
I will go back to highlighting the many faults of the Harris/Walz ticket and I desperately hope they do not win. But if they do, I will not despair. Together, we will “look through the chaos” that that eventuality might bring and we will find our way through it.
And America will have it’s 250th birthday in 2026 and continue, hopefully, for another 250 years.
I remain respectfully,
Congressman John Campbell
Drive Fast & Live Free