Kamalanomics, George McGovern and…Taylor Swift?
“Now the words had all been spoken.
Somehow the feeling still wasn’t right.
And still we continued on through the night.
Tracing our steps from the beginning,
Until they vanished into the air.
Trying to understand how our lives had led us there.”
No, I am not going to write about the DNC convention this week. If Kamala says something of interest you will hear from me about it next week. Instead, let’s review where the campaigns look like they are right now, and what might change.
Kamalanomics: Vice President Harris has made very few policy positions known in the short time since she became the presumptive Democratic nominee for president. Just last week, she announced two new economic proposals. One is to impose price controls on food and another to provide a $25,000 subsidy for first time homebuyers.
Forgetting for the moment the deficit implications of these proposals, there is no question that they do not work. Price controls failed in ancient Rome, the Soviet Union and when Nixon tried them in the 70s, just to name a few of the failures. They actually result in higher prices and food shortages. The house purchase subsidies will do exactly what college tuition subsidies have done, which is raise the price of tuition by the amount of the subsidy so that the money goes to the college (or in this case the builder or homeowner) rather than the student or homebuyer.
There is literally no debate about this amongst economists. No less than the NY Times and the Washington Post editorialized as much.
So, why did Harris propose them? I have two theories. The first is that she is not smart and none of her advisors are smart and they are unaware that this stuff will not succeed. Many on the left, like Obama and Pelosi, are smart. But Kamala is not. I would hope, however, that some of her advisors would be.
My second, and more likely postulate is that they know these won’t work and they will never implement them, but they sound great on the campaign. “I promise you lower food prices and assistance to buy a home!” Who doesn’t like that? If they win, they can blame the lack of follow-through on a recalcitrant Republican-controlled Senate.
Joy & Taylor Swift: The Harris campaign is one of substance-less messaging. As a campaign strategy, I cannot disagree with what they are doing. They have a flawed candidate whose best chance is to not have to expose those flaws in the short campaign. As a voter, I am disgusted that she will not show the public who she is and what she is really for. But this strategy is working so far. I expect they will keep it up. President Harris will bring “joy” and “freedom” and “democracy” and lower prices for everything and of course, reproductive rights. If their internal polls still show Kamala ahead in a couple of weeks, I also predict that they will find a way to get out of the planned debate. They have nothing to gain by debating and much they could lose. And having the regime media basically be a part of your campaign team is very helpful when you are playing hide the ball like that.
In my estimation, the Harris campaign wants to make her into the Taylor Swift candidate. She laughs. She dances. She smiles and tells stories about all the men who have wronged her. Pay no attention to policy or the economy or immigration or anything else. Sway to the music and feel the joy and vote Kamala and Tim!
So far it is working. The challenge for Trump/Vance will be to make people look at what each side will actually do if elected. The regime media will not help them. But they may still get it done. The last 60 days of this election cycle will be pivotal.
George McGovern: McGovern was a Senator from South Dakota and the Democratic nominee for president in 1972. He did not do well. He won only one state, Massachusetts, even losing his home state. One of the planks of his campaign was to “redistribute wealth.” He was very open about this.
Fast forward to 2024 and income inequality is much greater than it was then. The Harris/Walz campaign has a stealth position of wealth redistribution. I say stealth because they do not say it out loud. The ghost of George McGovern and the shadow of communism prevents them from doing so. But when they advocate as many handouts to as many groups as they are, and “pay” for them with tax increases on somebody other than the people getting the handouts, that is redistribution, plain and simple. They argue that the tax increases are to close the deficit. But they will not come close just to paying for the new spending and giveaways they propose. The deficit will further increase under their plan, in spite of the tax increases. What are these tax increases? See Pocahontas section below.
The sole purpose of the tax increases is income and wealth redistribution. But they won’t admit it. That is because it sounds a little too much like “from each according to his ability. To each according to his needs.” Who said that? Oh yeah, Karl Marx. Marx is genuinely popular amongst the leftist elites in this country, some of whom openly praise him. But Americans broadly are still not fans.
Kamala and Keir: On July 4th, Labour was elected to a massive majority in the UK Parliament and Keir Starmer is their leader. He ran on a campaign of moderation and leading from the center. In just over a month, it is clear that his campaign was a complete lie and that he will govern from the far left of his party. There are massive protest in the streets from the majority of the population that did not vote Labour in the last election. People are being jailed for speech that the government does not like. Having a bumper sticker on your car that says “it’s OK to be white” has resulted in jail terms longer than that for child molestation in England. I expect a Harris presidency will be similar. The next 70+ days will be filled with platitudes, joy and happy talk about middle ground. But if she wins, her governance will likely look like Keir’s.
Event: Last week I pointed out that this has been an event driven election and that The Donald needs an event in his favor to change the momentum. Their are rumors out there of RFK, Jr. making a “deal” with Trump and throwing his support to him in order to stop Kamala. That would be a major campaign disprupting event if it were to occur. It would be a signal to the “double haters,” who don’t like either candidate, that they need to hold their noses and vote Trump.
Pocahontas: That noted native American, Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), has a new estate tax proposal. She wants to lower the size of an estate that would not be subject to tax from $13.6 million today to $3.5 million with no indexing for inflation. She would raise the current 40% tax rate and stair step it up to 75%. Most tax free transfers during life that are currently allowed would be limited to $20,000 lifetime.
Normally, you could discount this kind of proposal as a fringe from the far left. But she is now mainstream in the Democratic Party and I’m sure Kamala loves this stuff. A Republican Senate will never pass anything like this, but it is important to know some of the ways that the left plan to pay for their free stuff. It isn’t nearly enough money to cover their spending, but they will act like it is. Other proposals that Harris and other significant Dems are rolling out include a tax on unrealized capital gains (which is effectively a wealth tax disguised to get around the constitution), increase in realized capital gains tax, increase in corporate income tax and increase in income taxes on individuals and pass-through entities. There will be exemptions for favorite Democratic constituencies (trial lawyers, Hollywood, tech, media etc.). But the idea is “don’t tax me, don’t tax thee, tax the fellow behind the tree.”
Jackson Browne is a favorite of mine. “Late for the Sky” is the title song from a really great album of his. Although this song is about a love relationship, the lyrics I chose ring to me about how many of us are feeling after the two political parties have finished their conventions.
Late for the sky.
I remain respectfully,
Congressman John Campbell
Drive Fast & Live Free