Trump v. Congress v. California
“Let it be Christmas, everywhere.
Let heavenly music fill the air.
Let every heart sing,
Let every bell ring,
The story of hope and joy and peace.
And let it be Christmas, everywhere.
Let heavenly music fill the air.
Let anger and fear and hate disappear,
Let there be love that lasts through the year.
And let it be Christmas,
Christmas everywhere. ”
If you read my biography on this website somewhere, you will see that I spent just short of five years in the full-time California legislature and just short of 10 years in Congress. Part of the reason many of you read these missives is that I know a bit about how these institutions work and do still know many of the people personally.
In spite of what the formerly mainstream media has said, Mr. Trump is not Hitler or a dictator. The real authoritarians today are on the left where they desire to control speech, behavior and even thoughts. Mr. Trump will need Congress to accomplish many of his goals. Yes, both the House and the Senate have narrow Republican majorities. That doesn’t mean they will all reflexively do whatever Trump 47 wants. And on the other coast, Governor Gavin Newsom in California has vowed to be the “anti-Trump” and “protect” his citizens from whatever the new president might enact. As I write this, the California state legislature has convened a special session to “Trump-proof” the state. That is actually their term. I am not making this up.
So, amongst Mr. Trump’s challenges are one institution (Congress) that should support him and another (California) that is openly hostile. Let’s look inside both to see what might happen.
I have long said that the most important factor in elected politics is that no one wants to leave office on their shield (they don’t want to lose an election). They want to leave on their own terms. I never lost an election but it does not look like fun. Every vote, speech or appearance has some element of “how does this help me win the next election” as part of it.
Members of Congress are elected in districts and Senators in states. Those are the people who send you to Washington and give you the power to make laws. I witnessed many a Representative who forgot about that and either paid more attention to what Washington wanted or what their party leadership wanted. Those Representatives often found themselves losing the next election.
When DOGE wants to cut spending, even some of the most conservative members will be loathe to cut something that directly benefits their district. When RFK, Jr. asks to eliminate TV ads for prescription drugs, the member who has a Pfizer plant in their district that employs thousands of people will likely be opposed. I saw military equipment programs get funded that the pentagon said they did not want and would not use. A powerful Senator and Congressmen from the district where that equipment is built, did not want to see those jobs go away.
As the 19th century German Chancellor Otto Von Bismarck said, “people who like laws and sausages should never see either one being made.”
“That’s terrible,” you say. Those people should vote what’s best for the country not just their little district. I understand that and I fortunately had a district where many of my voters would understand that. But that is not the case most places. Not allowing a deduction for state and local income taxes (SALT deduction) is the right thing to do under any objective economic allowance and is fair to those in states without and income tax. But tell that to Representatives in New York and California.
Arguably, the point of districts and states and our federal system is that these representatives do represent their local interests so that they have a voice in national affairs. This is not new. It has ever been thus, even when the constitution was being written.
The split between Republicans and Democrats in the House as of the November 5th elections was 220-215. But three Republican members will either join the administration or go elsewhere (Matt Gaetz) leaving the numbers at 217-215 until some time in April when those vacancies are filled. That means if all Democrats are present and vote no, Mr. Trump cannot lose a single vote to get his agenda passed. After April, he can lose no more than two. That’s tough.
In the Senate, many fiscal things can be done through “reconciliation” where only a majority vote is required. With 53 Republican Senators and the sitting Vice President to break a tie, the president can lose three votes there. But most policy matters require 60 votes, and Republicans are not going to repeal the filibuster (nor should they). That means getting at least seven Democrats to go along. Only a truly bipartisan effort can do that.
Presidents can do a lot by executive order these days. Too much in my opinion. But there is still a lot that takes legislation. Passing that legislation is not going to be easy. There will be lots of horse trading. It is the worst form of government ever devised, “except for all the others that have been tried from time to time” as Sir Winston Churchill said.
Speaking of worst, let me turn now to California.
Many Democrats, even in blue states like New York, are being careful to not be too negative about Trump given his huge vote gains in all 50 states. Even in California, he lost by “only” 20 points instead of 30 points in 2020. And Republicans made minor gains in both houses of the state legislature there. But California Governor Gavin Newsom is now focused on only one thing - winning the Democratic nomination for president in 2028. He believes that the best way to do that is to sew up the Democratic base and do it early. He furthermore believes that the way accomplish that is to be more anti-Trump than anyone else. He may actually be right about the internal Dem politics.
Amongst the things that the aforementioned special session of the California Legislature is doing is to allocate $60 million towards legal efforts opposing anything Trump or Republicans in Congress might do. Part of that sum is $25 million to provide lawyers to defend any illegal aliens from deportation. Presumably that includes criminal aliens. Remember that this is a state with a multi-year budget deficit projected to be between $2-30 billion. I guess $60 million is a rounding error.
Conveniently after the election, the California Air Resources Board voted to increase the price of gasoline by somewhere between 50 cents and 65 cents a gallon in the first quarter of 2025. The reason is because they must further discourage gasoline use because they are not meeting their carbon goals. That is unlikely to be popular even in big blue California. But Gavin doubled down saying he supported it. Again, selling out his constituents so that AOC and others will endorse him for president.
And while all this is going on, the incoming legislature in California has set “lowering the cost of living” as a major goal for 2025. Easy. Repeal most every law they passed in the last 10 years all of which have increased the cost of everything in the state. That would work. But of course, they won’t do that. What will they do? Despite losing seats in the legislature, losing some major propositions and Trump gaining 10 points, the legislative leaders view this as a “mandate” to keep on the Neo-Marxist path. So, they will likely either establish price controls or subsidize or both. That never works anywhere but leftists are never deterred by the failure of their policies.
The point here is that while New York, Illinois and Colorado may sit back and see what the first 100 days of Trump 2.0 brings, California says “damn the voters, full speed ahead.” Even if you live in one of the other 49 states, most of which are quite sane, it will be instructive to watch how this all plays out in the state of Herbert Hoover, Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan. Albeit a shadow of the place where they lived.
In spite of this, the Mayor of Los Angeles just asked that Hitler-like fascist for $3 Billion in federal money to create a “car-free olympics” in 2028. Newsom’s administration wants a $20 billion federal loan to California forgiven by the same fascist. You can’t make this stuff up.
If there’s one thing we know about President Trump, if someone punches at him he does not turn the other cheek. Even though he gained 10 points in California from 2020, there were only four states where Trump lost by a greater margin than California. They are Hawaii, Massachusetts, Maryland and Vermont. There are no Republican Senators from California and now only nine House members out of 52 Republicans from the largest state. Looking at the cabinet, I don’t see a lot of golden state representation either.
California will be out of power in Washington for the next two years. But still they plan to fight the Trump administration in the courts and everywhere else they can. Smart move? We shall see. Will illegals in Texas run to California so Newsom will protect them and give them free stuff?
Lots to watch when the calendar turns to January 21, 2025.
Today’s Christmas song is proof that great Christmas music is still being written in this century. Just because Bing Crosby never sang it, doesn’t mean it can’t be great.
Until next week, I remain respectfully,
Congressman John Campbell
Drive Fast & Live Free