Uncertainty
“I’ll have a blue Christmas without you.
I’ll be so blue just thinking a-a-a-about you.
Decorations of red on our green Christmas tree,
Won’t be the same dear, if you’re not here with me.
And when those blue snowflakes start fallin’,
That’s when those blue memories start callin’.
You’ll be doin’ all right,
With your Christmas of white,
But I’ll have a blue, blue, blue, blue, blue Christmas”
Sir Winston Churchill in 1958 famously stated that “the future is unknowable”. Of course it is. But at some moments, it is more unknowable than others. I believe this is one of those times.
As always, we have the usual uncertainties. There are pockets of instability and war around the globe that could erupt or disrupt. Economies are cyclical and we could go up or down from here. Society and culture are constantly changing and politics and policy move along with them. There can be earthquakes and floods and drought and disease, all of which can rise up and change what we thought was going to happen.
But today, there is so much more. Ukraine and the Middle East are obvious areas of war and stress. But the formerly three strongest countries in Europe are melting down politically and economically before our eyes (Germany, France and the UK). There was martial law in South Korea. There are huge protests in Georgia. The EU is being stressed by Hungary and others. China is threatening Taiwan and the Philippines while North Korea extends its military reach. There is hardly a country in South America that is not undergoing major political upheaval. What’s going on right now in Syria involves about five other countries. In the UK, from which our American systems of jurisprudence sprung, you can go to jail for two years for speech the government doesn’t like.
In the United States, the economy is sending so many mixed messages. All the “headline” numbers look good. But the people don’t feel good. A record number of people flew somewhere for Thanksgiving. But major auto manufacturers are closing plants and laying off workers. Home sales are the lowest in recent memory. But home prices remain high. The stock market seemingly sets a new all-time record every day. But something like 40% of the Russell 2000 stocks (smaller public companies) are losing money.
Also in the U.S., our political divisions are as great as they have been in my lifetime, and they are spilling into culture, sports, advertising and any number of other parts of society.
We are about to finish the 4 years of the Biden/Harris administration. In my estimation, this was by far the worst presidency of my lifetime and is up there amongst worst presidencies ever. They left us with wars all over the world in which we are taking part in some way; greater divisions than ever in race, gender and financial equity; an open border; rampant crime; a complete and deserved distrust of almost all public institutions (many of which like the FBI were once lauded); and a weak economy.
Enter Donald J. Trump and J.D. Vance.
Regular readers of these missives know that I voted for Trump as a dramatically better option than the alternative. I am hopeful that Mr. Trump will solve many of these problems and help Make America Great Again.
But he is not a calming influence. And he is above all, a risk taker.
He has been a risk taker his whole life. He made many risky and highly leveraged investments. Obviously, most turned out well for him but he has bankruptcies littered here and there as a testimony to his failures. He ran for president in 2016 and was given almost zero chance of succeeding even in the primary. But succeed he did. He has had three wives and numerous girlfriends. He does not take the safe route to almost anything.
In January, we will have that risk-taker in the White House without fear of reelection, ready to do the things he regrets not getting done the first time around. Washington DC, needs major reform. There is no question about that. Trump is going to try to do all of those reforms, in the words of the Academy Award Winning Picture, “Everything, Everywhere, All At Once.”
Don’t misunderstand, I favor almost all of what he wants to accomplish and hope he succeeds. But it adds to the risks that are already out there. And he is unlikely to succeed in all dimensions.
Let’s take the economy as one example. What the government does matters. They can raise or lower interest rates. They can stimulate parts of the economy and tax and regulate other parts. They can print money or draw it out of circulation. They can subsidize some items and tariff others. Taxes can go up or down. These things matter to us all.
In his first term, Trump famously looked at the S&P 500 as a measure of his administration’s success in the economy. But many of the people who voted for him don’t care much about that. They care more about their wages and the price of bread and gasoline. Having the stock market and wages go up while prices come down is a neat trick. DOGE has a goal to cut government spending and reduce the deficit. Good. But much or perhaps even all of the current economic growth is being caused by massive government spending in excess of receipts that pumps money into the economy. If you solve the deficit, you may tip the country into recession. But if you don’t solve the deficit the country may not be able to sell its debt. Add to this that there are asset bubbles everywhere and the money being made by them is concentrated in very few hands. But if they burst, the pain may spread wide.
It’s a fine mess. I have no idea what they will do. I’m not sure they are quite sure what they will do.
Twenty years ago, Doris Kearns Goodwin came out with a best-selling book entitled “Team of Rivals” about Abraham Lincoln’s cabinet and how they disagreed with one another. The book makes the point that this was a brilliant move and Lincoln’s cabinet was the most successful in history. Whether you agree or not with the book’s conclusion, it was so well read and quoted that it became accepted as a good way to do things in government.
Mr. Trump is certainly assembling a “team of rivals.” In the foreign policy arena, it’s hard to imagine Tulsi Gabbard and Marco Rubio agreeing on much. RFK, Jr. wants to Make America Healthy Again (MAHA), and use government power to do it, which most traditional conservatives will abhor. The new Treasury Secretary is amongst a number of new appointees that were lifelong Democrats until recently. Of course, so was Ronald Reagan and Mr. Trump himself. Some in the economic team are proposing tariffs that others in the team have always opposed.
The direction of culture is a little more clear. The “zeitgeist” is changing with DEI being dropped by major companies, football players doing the “Trump dance” in the end zone without fear of punishment, and even Bud Light changing ads to show macho white males at a bar drinking their product. The Neo-Marxists will resist all of this. They will try not to lose too much ground. They have been at this for 50 years so they are patient. The Trump administration will try to put a stake in the heart of DEI and the religions of S2LGBTQii+++ as well as the green climate agenda. That will not be easy. The fights will get nasty.
My point in all this is simple. There are always risks out there. Before November 5th, those risks were increasing. After Trump takes office, they will increase even more. He will make, or try to make, bold moves. Some will succeed and some will fail and some will change course along the way. It’s very easy to see the results he seeks. It is much harder to see how he will get there.
If the next president had been Kamala Harris or Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley, their cabinets and policies would be much more predictable. I’m not suggesting better or worse, but just more of what we have seen in the past. Trump’s unpredictability is measured by many as a strength of his. Maybe so. But it is harder for the rest of us to plan our lives around.
The chaos is getting greater and deeper and wider. Mr. Trump plans to take us out the other end with less chaos and a more prosperous, happy and ordered world. I pray to God that he does that. But until that happens, the chaos will ramp up.
I am not going to hide out in a former missile silo bunker in Kansas, although such things can be acquired relatively cheaply. But, I will be observant, flexible and cautious. At some point, one thing or another will start to clear up. The fog will lift somewhere and we will be able to see through either to some clarity or perhaps even greater chaos.
And we will do it together.
This week’s song has nothing to do with the blog. It is time for Christmas music. This quintessentially Elvis song has been a staple at Campbell family Christmases for decades, a tradition started by my late brother who was Elvis-obsessed.
Until next week, may your Christmas not be blue.
I remain respectfully,
Congressman John Campbell
Drive fast & Live Free