Ukraine – Looking Ahead
War. Huh. Good God Lord.
What is it good for. Absolutely nothin’.
Say it, say it, say it.
Oh war, I despise.
‘Cause it means destruction of innocent lives.
War means tears to thousands of mother’s eyes.
When their sons go off to fight and lose their lives.
War, it ain’t nothin’ but a heartbreaker.
War, friend only to the undertaker.
War – Edwin Starr
…..
The American Authoritarian Leftist Cabal continues to beat the pavement about their preferred issues of January 6th, Climate Change, Social Justice, Transgender rights and Vaccine Mandates because the left never sleeps.
In the meantime, consumer confidence as measured by the University of Michigan is the lowest it’s been in over 10 years and only 28% of people (according to the RCP average of polls) believe the country is on the right track. Real people, as opposed to the cloistered leftist elites, are worried about inflation, crime, illegal immigration, drugs, the decline in education and……
…..oh yeah. War!
We can never be sure exactly what is happening on the ground in any war. Even the people fighting it are often lost in “the fog of war.” Regardless of the outcome and regardless of how much time passes until the war is won by one side or the other or a truce is declared, this conflict has changed things for all of us going forward. Here are a few of those changes.
Russia represents only about 2% of world GDP and Ukraine less than 1%. So, having them drop out of the world market should be barely noticeable by Americans, right? Wrong. In the 1950s, almost all the metals and “rare earth minerals” used in technological components were mined and produced in the United States. Today, virtually none of them are. This is a result of seeking cheap labor, subsidies by other countries and onerous environmental restrictions in the U.S. forcing closures. You can’t make a car engine or a computer with only 99% of the parts. You need them all. And some of those parts, require things currently mined in Ukraine or Russia. Take them out of the market and the price goes up as availability goes down. And it’s not like you can open a new mine in the U.S. in a week. Every country is seeing this. Every country is realizing that their economies are overly dependent on a single component sourced in a single country whose future might be unstable. How do you fix this? Bring that production and mining back home. But that means the component will be necessarily more expensive. Many still see that as worth it for the stability of having your supply chain near home. This is a pattern that was already forming. The war has just accelerated it.
The U.S. and NATO have so far rejected the calls for a “no fly zone” over Ukraine. Why? Because the Russians have nukes and Putin has intimated he might use them. So, Russia is free of any conventional interference from outside. If Russia did not have nukes, might there be a no fly zone? It seems likely. So, if you are Iran or North Korea or any other dictatorial, ruthless, ambitious regime, what do you learn from this? If we have nukes, or the west thinks we do, they will leave us alone when we invade other countries. This is not a good message.
WWCD. In this case, that stands for What Will China Do? Putin promised Xi he would not invade during the Olympics. Promise kept. Xi apparently agreed to buy some Russian energy and agricultural products. But the two countries are historically enemies. And China has been trying to appear neutral. China wants Taiwan. China is now issuing threats warning the U.S. against setting up a NATO-like alliance in the Pacific. How the Ukrainian war ends may affect whether China feels emboldened by this or not. But either way, China is watching this closely. What will they conclude? How, if at all, will they change their strategies and future plans relative to Taiwan and the U.S.? This may be more important in the long term than the outcome of the war itself.
Europe will be hurt by this economically but may emerge more united and stronger. They are more dependent on Russian energy and they will get almost all of the millions of refugees. However, for the first time in a while, Europe seems united in their response to this crisis. If they can keep it together, that may be some good to come out of this.
After decades of languishing, free countries, including the United States, may now see the value of a well-trained, well equipped and fully funded military. We were told that society had progressed past war and that those were not necessary anymore. Wars are never necessary. But they are an unfortunate part of the make-up of human beings. If you think there will never be a fight in a bar again, then I’m sure you also think there will never be another war. I disagree. In fact, the possibility of the use of nuclear weapons, considered unthinkable since the 1960s, is clearly higher than zero today. Does the dying head of a dying regime at some point push the button? We must assume that the answer at some point in the future is yes. We should be prepared.
Nothing is more basic or important than food. Even before the invasion, food prices were skyrocketing around the world as part of the inflation surge. Now they are even higher. Ukraine and Russia ship 28% of world’s exports of wheat. That is a lot. They also represent about 10% of world corn exports. You can’t grow a crop with shells landing on your field or without fertilizer for the field, or if there’s no fuel for the tractor. And even if you grow it, if you can’t get it trucked out and then put on a ship to another country, then it doesn’t go to where it’s needed. We are very lucky in the U.S. We grow all our own food and export some to boot. But many countries must import all or most of it. And when people can’t eat either because it is too expensive or not available, that is when the palace gets stormed. Instability in food means instability in geopolitics. And right now, we have instability in food.
American companies are exiting the Russian market, many, it appears, for good. They don’t want to be seen as aiding the murderous regime in Moscow and helping their economy stay afloat. Fine. What about China? Many of these same companies do business in a country that is committing genocide every day and they know it. But, it’s a much bigger country and they have a much bigger share of their business there. So, is there morality weighed on a scale against revenue and when revenue is higher than it doesn’t matter how murderous the regime is? Will anyone call them out on this?
Many of my friends think that the vulnerability shown in the west to energy produced by unstable regimes will slow down the climate change agenda. I only wish that that were so. Biden continues to block any new carbon-based energy production in the U.S. while telling us that we can fight Russian oil by insulating your home and buying an EV. I’m afraid that both camps in the climate change war are already retreating to their corners. Those of us who are proud climate change deniers, believe this shows the folly of trying to replace carbon-based fuels with technology that is not ready yet and that Germany is the prime example. The Climate Change faithful, follow their flat earth path and insist that the only problem is they haven’t mandated enough. There was some hope for a while that the Climate Changers might embrace nuclear. But now, with nuclear powerplants having been military targets, I think that hope has been dashed as well. The Germans may have learned their lesson of the folly of embracing wind and solar as major energy sources. But the American Climate warriors, like all leftists, never let reality get in the way of their agenda.
One of my biggest concerns is the lack of leadership shown in the White House. I could use some more crass terms (and I want to) but I will refrain. Some people of little note seem to rise to the occasion in a crisis. President Zelensky appears to be one of those. Mr. Biden if anything, has sunk further. He does not lead, he follows. He clearly is more interested in his polling numbers than in the outcome of this war. Regardless of what you think of President Trump, he was surrounded with competent clear-eyed people. Not so in this White House. These are trying times. Even the best of leaders can and do make mistakes. The risk of a policy error by this White House is very high. The consequences of such a mistake, even higher. This whole crisis was brought on by Biden’s weakness and his Afghanistan debacle. And we have nearly 3 more years of him. God help us.
An article in Spectator World this week contained a short quote from a Ukrainian military commander on the ground fighting the war. In a short interview, this officer said:
“My fear is that Russia won’t stop now until every bit of resistance is wiped out, meaning Ukraine will be turned to ash. The West will punish Moscow to such an extent that Putin could be swept from power with Russia left a financial and societal train wreck. Or perhaps worse, a failed state with nuclear weapons.”
These are not trivial issues. These are not easy times. The war is much closer to the United States than the geography of the map would suggest.
May the Lord save us from ourselves.
I remain respectfully,
Congressman John Campbell
Drive fast & live free