AI, Debt, Music and More
“That’s life. That’s what people say.
You’re ridin’ high in April, shot down in May.
But I know I’m gonna change that tune,
When I’m back on top, back on top in June.
I said that’s life, and funny as it may seem.
Some people get their kicks, stompin’ on a dream.
But I don’t let it, let it get me down.
‘Cause this fine old world keeps spinnin’ around.
I’ve been a puppet, a pauper, a pirate, a poet, a pawn and a king.
I’ve been up and down and over and out and I know one thing,
Each time I find myself flat on my face,
I pick myself up and get back in the race.
That’s life, I tell you I can’t deny it.
I thought of quitting baby but my heart just ain’t gonna buy it.
And if I didn’t think it was worth one single try,
I’d jump right on a big bird and then I’d fly.”
As Labor Day weekend approaches, I’ll give much of the election a rest for a week. The 60 day dash to the finish will begin after that, and it will likely be a very newsy dash. So, let’s look at a couple of other things.
A.I.: In the Terminator 2 Movie, Judgment Day, Arnold Schwarzenegger’s character states that the “Skynet” computer system became “self-aware” at “2:14 AM Eastern time on August 29th, 1997.” Everything changed at that moment, at least in the movie. You would think that something similar happened in the last year as computers became “intelligent” and they now “think,” which they didn’t do a few months earlier.
This is hype. Computers have been getting faster and smaller and storage cheaper for decades ever since Intel co-founder Gordon Moore created “Moore’s Law” in 1965. I remember people talking about artificial intelligence in the late 70s using massive room-sized IBM mainframe computers.
Computers are not thinking. They are processing way more data way faster than they used to and therefore they will have more capabilities in the future just as today’s machines have so much more capability than they did 10 years ago.
Furthermore there are downsides to AI. The electrical power needed to handle all these fast processors is huge. Potentially 30% more than all the power we use for everything today. Where will that power come from? You could blanket the entire country with windmills and solar farms and it would not be enough. It will mean more burning of natural gas and nuclear. The climate worshipers don’t like those things. So, will they stop AI to save the planet?
Furthermore, the costs are very high and there is much concern about whether the benefits will cover the costs. Right now they don’t.
I saw a toothbrush the other day that said “powered by AI.” Your toothbrush is not thinking. It’s marketing. It’s hype. I’m not saying it’s meaningless. Faster and faster processing will have uses and benefits. But it is not a “self-aware-like” leap and there are problems that must be resolved.
I was planning to do an entire missive on the subject of artificial intelligence and still may do so. But that’s what you get for now.
Debt: You’ve heard a lot about “joy” and “AI” and “reproductive rights.” But do you hear any talk about the national debt? Not from The Donald or Kamala. Both will likely try to make it worse in different ways. Donald will cut taxes and increase military spending. Kamala will increase all kinds of spending and raise some taxes that will likely result in lower revenue. Both have to get Congress to agree which will not be easy. But the point is that neither is a fiscal conservative and neither will cut spending and raise taxes to deal with the problem.
So, the debt will rise and at some point the government won’t be able to sell it. When that happens, the Fed will print money to buy the debt, which will rekindle inflation. They will also lower and try to control interest rates across all maturities (yield control) and then perhaps require banks and retirement plans to buy the debt that yields below inflation. This will be painful. There is no way around the pain at this point. It is just a matter of where you want the pain applied and what kind of pain you are willing to take.
And no one is talking about it.
Music: Many of you have asked how I know to pick so many songs for these missives. With the possible exception of CCR’s “Bad Moon Rising,” I try not to repeat any song. I love music. Primarily popular and rock music from the 1950s-1980s. I see that high school proms are playing Led Zeppelin songs (and other classic rock tunes) which were written in some cases before their parents were born. I believe that that era of rock music will be like the classical period in that it was a unique time when conditions were ripe for a lot of ground breaking, creative and truly timeless music. I also like country music from 1980 through today, although I do not suggest that it will be timeless. But maybe? I also love the Baroque and Classical periods.
Anyway, I listen to music while driving, exercising, working in the yard, detailing my cars and performing other tasks. I bet I listen to two hours of music a day and have done so since I got my first transistor radio around 1965. My friends have remarked that I know “one verse to every song ever written.” That may be an exaggeration. But I know a lot.
Hence, although I think I have written over 100 of these missives, I have lists of hundreds more songs to go. I still have nearly 1000 vinyl record albums in my collection. I am unlikely to run out of music before I run out of time.
That’s Life: I chose this week’s song as an ode to this election season. And of course it is hard to beat Sinatra when you want a song to tell a story. He was one of the best at phrasing.
Scranton Joe, The Donald and Kamala have been “up and down and over and out” over the last few months and there is no indication that much will change in the home stretch. I reported the rumor last week that RFK, Jr. would drop out and endorse Trump and indeed he did. Since then, Tulsi Gabbard, another former Democrat, also endorsed Trump. These are significant not because they each have many devoted followers but because these are Democrats who did not support or vote for Trump in 2016 or 2020. How many others like them are out there? The Republicans who are supporting Harris now were also for Hillary and Biden in 2016 and 2020. This is the third election in a row in which Trump is the Republican nominee. Many will vote for him for the third time and many will vote against him for the third time. The election will be decided by those who change their minds about him as well as those who did not vote at all in the prior elections or choose not to vote this time.
I also suggested last week that Kamala would find a way out of the debate which we now see appears to be happening. She will instead do scripted interviews with carefully selected pro-DNC members of regime media who will ask questions the campaign has screened and Kamala will give answers that have been rehearsed. If Kamala were to win, she will be a president about whom voters know less than any other in modern times.
I rate this thing as a toss up at this point. Obviously, there is time for more events to shift things. Absent that, however, it will come down to who shows up and where the enthusiasm lies in those seven competitive states.
Have a wonderful Labor Day. Then “pick yourself up and get back in the race.”
I remain respectfully,
Congressman John Campbell
Drive Fast & Live Free