Sinema

Yes, I’m stuck in the middle with you.
And I’m wondering what it is I should do.
It’s so hard to keep this smile from my face,
Losing control, yeah, I’m all over the place.
Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right,
Here I am, stuck in the middle with you.

Stuck in the Middle with You  -  Stealer’s Wheel

…..

I live in Arizona and so obviously pay more attention to political happenings there. But that is not why I am writing about the Arizona senior senator’s recently announced departure from the Democratic party. This move is particularly interesting at this moment in time, and how it plays out from here is far from certain.

I overlapped one term in Congress with then Congressional Member Sinema. Interestingly, she and Tulsi Gabbard (another former Democrat) were amongst the small number of freshman Democrats with whom I discussed policy agreements during my last term in Congress. Both were easy to talk to and not confrontational. Both were very, very liberal early in their political careers. I emphasize liberal because the Democratic party is no longer liberal. It is a leftist party now, closer to communism than the tenants of classical liberalism which defined most Democrats in the latter half of the 20th century.

The cynical view is that Senator Sinema made this change because she knew she would lose a Democratic primary when she is up for reelection in 2024, and by becoming an Independent she avoids any primary. Perhaps. There is no question that she would face a bruising and expensive primary with a likely challenge from the left by Arizona Congressman Ruben Gallego. Sinema voted 93% of the time with Biden, including confirming all of his nominees. But, she stopped filibuster repeal, packing the Supreme Court and Build Back Better. Those votes earned her the enmity of the left in Arizona. A recent poll showed her approval rating about the same amongst Republicans as it is among Democrats at around 37%.

Maybe it’s cynical. I expect not. For years now I have been lamenting that real liberals are not rejecting the Democratic party since it has become the most illiberal party in America. Given the blowback and threats Sinema received from the left on her three big departures from the Biden agenda, you have to conclude she made these moves because of deeply held beliefs and not for political expediency.

Her moves in the next 15 months will be very instructive. First of all, Sinema’s move empowers Manchin again. He too is up for reelection in 2024 in a state Trump won by 39 points. Will he run in 2024? If so, can he win as a Democrat in that state today? He and Sinema together can still block anything the Senate Democrats want to do. But of course, the Republican led House can block things as well. Does that make the Senate opposition less significant since it is voting against things that won’t become law anyway?

She is now an independent, who has indicated that she will caucus with Democrats but will not attend the weekly caucus strategy meetings. How will she vote on confirmations where the House Republicans have no say? Will she be a more faithful Democrat hoping that the Dems don’t run anyone significant in the primary to clear her path as an independent? Or will she lean Republican to romance enough independents and Republicans in Arizona to make up for the Dem votes she will lose? Does she endorse anyone for president in 2024?

When she finally voted for the Inflation Reduction Act, it was in exchange for preserving the capital gains tax rate on “carried interests” and for exempting large private equity from certain taxes that will now only apply to public companies. Those were not tax cuts but preservation of tax benefits for hedge funds, private equity and real estate interests. I personally opposed what she did there. Interestingly, those companies are the antithesis of the Bernie Sanders wing of the Democratic party. They will be big financial supporters of whatever she does in 2024.

Winning election in a 3-way race as an independent is hard and rarely successful. Sinema, if nothing else, is smart and has good political instincts. She just might pull it off. Maybe, in a purple state like Arizona, where some Rs are unhappy with Trumpism and some Ds are unhappy with Bidenism, it can be done.

I began this missive by saying that this is not just a blog about Arizona. The divisions between the parties are getting wider and wider. The ability of the left and the right to even speak to one another is waning. The restrictions on speech and open debate plague our public discourse. Transitions like Sinema’s have happened in the past, but they are rare, particularly amongst sitting US Senators. They usually indicate that something is percolating in the make-up of the two parties.

Let’s hope so. In any event, I will be following her closely in the months ahead not just because I live in the Grand Canyon State, but because what happens may be instructive about future politics in the home of the free and the brave.

I remain respectfully,
Congressman John Campbell
Drive fast and live free