The Democrat’s Election Dilemma
She had a place in his life.
He never made her think twice.
As he rises to her apology,
Anybody else would surely know.
He’s watching her go.
But what a fool believes he sees.
No wise man has the power to reason away.
What a Fool Believes - The Doobie Brothers
…..
Elections, like sporting events, have their ups and downs. For a while, one side can be winning. Then something changes and the other side prevails in the end.
Six months ago, all the talk was of a “red wave.” Then, after the Supreme Court’s reversal of Roe v Wade, the elections in August went heavily in favor of the Dems as their base was energized by the “taking away of our rights.”
Polls have been very inaccurate for some years now. Their absolute measure of who is ahead or behind by one point or three points is not very reliable in part because the pollsters can’t be sure who is going to vote and who isn’t. The one thing I think you can derive from the polls with some degree of confidence, however, is the direction of the electorate. If the Rs are gaining ground in most or all polls, then they probably are in fact gaining ground.
And Republicans are gaining ground. But why? Roe v Wade is still repealed. Inflation is still high. The January 6th committee is still terrified of the “threat to democracy.” And crime is still on the rise. None of the issues that either party is touting to persuade voters has changed much since August. But the polls have.
I have a theory.
The Democrats are running on four major issues. They are (1) the removal of a right for women to control their own bodies (2) the threat to democracy posed by the January 6th protests (3) the existential threat of climate change and (4) the pervasive existence of systemic racism.
Republicans are also running on four major issues. They are (1) Inflation and the economy (2) the open border and illegal immigration (3) increasing crime in our cities and neighborhoods and (4) the indoctrination of children in public education in CRT (Critical race Theory), gender transition and to separate children from their parents.
Obviously, there is not much overlap between these issues. You probably have a visceral reaction to each.
But there is something else. The Democrat’s issues are all about stopping problems that do not exist yet. They argue that we may lose our democracy, but they agree that we haven’t lost it yet. Climate change may cause catastrophic flooding and heat in the future, but it hasn’t happened yet. I would also argue that the big Dem voter turnout in August was motivated by the thought that abortions were now going to be illegal in America since the Roe v Wade repeal. But, it is now clear to all that the issue was left to the states. Enough states still have legal abortion that any woman who wants one can still get one even if her state does not allow it by going to another state. If that state is California, the citizens there will even pay her travel and expenses.
In other words, the Democrats are trying to motivate voters to support them on the basis of things that might get bad unless they hold power. But for now, these things are generally not major problems even in the eyes of their base voters.
On the other hand, the Republican issues are about things that have already gone bad. Inflation is already here. The border is already porous, and more illegals are crossing than ever before. Crime is at multi-year highs in most major cities. Indoctrination in public schools is already happening in many states and school districts.
Regardless of the relative efficacy of the Republican or Democratic issues, the Republican ones have the immediacy of being present and in front of people now and every day. The Democratic ones are about threats to the future. People are interested in the future. But they are more focused on the present particularly when the present is a danger to that future.
I think the Dems got their side all worked up over the summer. But now that those issues really don’t seem to be currently in crisis, the urgency has faded. A woman’s “right to choose” has been restricted in some locals but not eliminated as perhaps they thought. The Republican issues, however, seem to get worse and have more immediacy by the day. Hence, the populace is moving towards dealing with the dangers in front of us, rather than those in the distance.
In Congress, we Republicans used to say that the Democrats would manufacture issues to run on because they had no solutions to the real problems that actually exist. Or even worse, the problems that exist are caused by their policies and they don’t want to acknowledge that. Another thing we used to say was that we Republicans were always worried that the public would not understand what we were trying to do while the Democrats were worried that the public would understand what they were trying to do, and that public would not like it.
Doesn’t this sound like what is happening now? CRT, Climate change and January 6th are all manufactured problems. Inflation, crime, and the border are all problems caused or exacerbated by Democrat policies. But they are unwilling to reverse any of those policies, as the White House is making very clear. So, they need to distract.
To this end, you see Democratic candidates talking about the Republican issues in all their ads. In Arizona, Senator Mark Kelly’s ads are all about securing the border, lowering taxes, lowering gas prices and reducing regulation. You would think he is a Republican. The ads are all lies of course, but it is instructive that he is unwilling to run on anything he has actually done or voted for and instead runs on principles that are often the opposite of his voting record. In Kansas where I am as I write this, current Democrat Governor Kelly running for reelection is actually running ads showing her with Donald Trump in a positive light!
The song for this week’s blog, is actually not one I particularly like. It is not one of the Doobie Brother’s best, in my opinion. I think the lyrics are badly metered and the voices do not articulate the words well. But it is a well-known song and the lyrics fit this week’s message.
Wordsmithing those lyrics just a bit, “No wise man has the power to reason away the things that a fool believes he sees.” This can apply to climate change, CRT, the 1619 project, American systemic racism, the threat to democracy. These are all things the leftist fools believe they see. And all the reason and facts in the world seem unable to dissuade them from their misguided beliefs.
So, we have to beat them. I am encouraged that maybe in two weeks, we will.
I remain respectfully,
Congressman John Campbell
Drive fast and Live Free